Are coups contagious? Recent news suggests they might be.
In the past three years, at least seven African countries, including Gabon and Niger, have witnessed military takeovers. This surge is surprising, considering that successful coups were relatively rare after the Cold War.
Erica De Bruin, a political scientist at Hamilton College, expressed her astonishment, stating that a decade ago, she would not have expected this trend.
Experts argue that coups are not directly “contagious.” Instead, they attribute the increase to a more permissive environment in coup-prone countries.
Shifts in the international community’s response to coups have made them less risky for aspiring plotters. Military leaders also learn from each other’s experiences, discovering ways to evade sanctions and hold on to power.
International condemnation used to make coups riskier. Now, not so much.
After the end of the Cold War, the international community started imposing sanctions on forcibly-installed regimes. These sanctions made it harder for military leaders to retain power and address the grievances that led to the coup in the first place.
However, the enforcement of these norms has become inconsistent. The United States, for example, has created exceptions to aid-cutting laws after coups, prioritizing national security interests over defending democracy.
The rise of China and private mercenaries like Wagner Group has also weakened the impact of sanctions. Countries like Burma can offset Western sanctions with Chinese support, and France turned to Wagner for security assistance after withdrawing its troops from Mali.
How to launder power
Coup leaders have also learned to “launder” their political power. By holding elections and manipulating them, they can present their coup-installed governments as legitimate to the international community.
This strategy, known as “coup laundering,” allows leaders to escape international condemnation once they win an election. They seize power, hold onto it long enough to win elections through manipulation, and benefit from lifted sanctions on their regime.
Despite the increase in coups, it is unlikely that they will reach Cold War levels. However, the compounding effect of leaders retaining power after a coup may diminish interest in policing such actions within international organizations.
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