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Some may be inclined to dismiss news of yet another coup in Africa. In the past three years alone, there have been seven coups in the west and central regions of the continent. Hopes for a strong democratic foundation have been shattered by military interventions.
However, this particular coup is not like the others. The removal of Mohamed Bazoum in Niger eliminates the West’s most crucial ally in the Sahel region. This opens the door for jihadist groups affiliated with Isis and al-Qaeda, as well as Russia’s Wagner group. These forces now have the opportunity to grow in power within a continuous “coup belt” spanning 3,500 miles from Guinea to Sudan. This development will please Vladimir Putin, who aims to establish a “second front” in the south of the Mediterranean.
The immediate concern is how to address the situation in Niger. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has led a strong regional response. Nigeria and its allies have issued threats of force and sanctions if the coup leaders do not restore civilian rule within one week. However, this tough talk may prove ineffective, especially considering that four out of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States are currently governed by military regimes. Mali and Burkina Faso are even supporting the coup leaders.
Despite the challenges, regional leaders are right in attempting to maintain stability. While Bazoum’s government had its flaws, it is worth defending. With assistance from France, Germany, and the US, Niger’s army has demonstrated greater success in combating the jihadist insurgency originating from Mali and Burkina Faso compared to the failing military regimes. Democracy may have been imperfect, but it enjoyed broad popularity. The recent demonstrations in Niamey, the capital, do not indicate mass support for the coup or for Russia’s Wagner group. Neither the Nigerian generals nor Russian mercenaries have anything to offer.
With slim hopes of restoring Niger’s democracy, what does this mean for Western policy in the Sahel? France’s interventionist approach has made it deeply unpopular. Emmanuel Macron’s attempts to normalize relations have been hindered by unresolved dilemmas on how to address the expanding Islamist threat.
If the coup in Niger becomes entrenched, France may consider abandoning its military base, as it did in Mali and Burkina Faso. The US would also need to decide whether to cooperate with a military government or leave the country to its own fate.
The West has significant interests at stake in the region. The prospect of a collapsing Sahel, located so close to Europe, is alarming both in terms of security and the potential influx of migrants fleeing a lawless and perilous neighborhood. Additionally, Niger is a supplier of uranium for France’s nuclear industry.
Above all, Western countries must present a more cohesive strategy in Africa, starting with investments that promote the transformation of raw materials for the benefit of local economies. African nations should thrive during the green transition, rather than being penalized.
For too long, Europe and the US overlooked Africa’s potential and strategic importance, viewing the continent solely as a humanitarian problem. Recently, they have realized that neglecting Africa has allowed China and Russia to gain influence. To regain lost ground, they must take Africa more seriously and contribute to its prosperity.
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