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It’s important to remember that early in his presidency, Joe Biden made efforts to build a relationship with Vladimir Putin. During the 2020 campaign, Biden didn’t focus much on Russia as a rival to the US, with China taking the spotlight. At the Geneva summit in June 2021, Biden went to great lengths to flatter Putin, even calling Russia a great power.
A few weeks later, Biden’s disastrous withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan occurred, which threatened to define his presidency.
Looking back, it’s evident that these two seemingly unrelated events – Biden’s positive approach towards Russia and the Afghanistan pullout – strengthened Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Putin believed that the West would not respond decisively to his annexation of Ukraine, just as they hadn’t with Crimea in 2014.
This kind of misunderstanding is a common feature of geopolitics throughout history.
In this particular case, the consequences of Russia’s mistake in Ukraine, coupled with the unified response from the West, are likely to have long-lasting repercussions. After sixteen months of Russia’s ongoing military operation, the world is now at a higher risk of great power conflict than any point in the Cold War.
Talk of reviving the liberal international order, which was never as ideal as its proponents claim, is becoming increasingly unrealistic. The world is entering a new era of great power rivalry, but comparing it to the 19th century version is misleading at best. The previous period of Pax Britannica ended in the tragedy of the first world war. Today, a direct conflict between the US and China, two competing giants, would be disastrous for the world.
The US and its Western allies face three major challenges in this new landscape.
The first challenge is maintaining unity against Putin. This is especially crucial in the upcoming US election. There has never been a US presidential election with such divergent possible outcomes for the world. If Biden is re-elected, there may be some continuity in US foreign policy until 2028. However, if Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, returns to power in 2025, it could jeopardize Western unity.
Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of resuming office. This alone motivates Putin to sustain the war for the next 18 months, hoping for Trump’s intervention. America’s European allies find it extremely difficult to prepare for this scenario. Their fate, as well as Ukraine’s, rests in the hands of US voters.
The second challenge for the West is creating a united front on China without escalating it into direct confrontation. Unlike the war in Ukraine, the rivalry between the US and China has no clear endpoint. Strategic planners cannot anticipate a natural conclusion.
This is where history offers little guidance. There is no scenario in which either the US or China emerges as the sole global hegemon, short of doomsday. Finding a path forward will require strategic patience and skill, as Deng Xiaoping once said, “crossing the river by feeling the stones,” even if the far bank is never fully visible.
This year, President Xi Jinping accused the US of trying to “suppress, contain, and encircle” China. Biden maintains that his goal is to cooperate with Beijing when possible, compete when necessary, and confront only as a last resort.
Managing the threat posed by China is an enormous challenge. A Trump victory next year could disrupt Biden’s delicate balancing act with China.
The third challenge for the West is finding solutions to existential threats to humanity, starting with global warming. Even without the complications of geopolitics, this would be a daunting task. However, the war in Ukraine and growing tensions with China have made it even more complex.
The global south is a critical battleground for influence between the US and China. It is also the primary victim of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The war, combined with Western sanctions on Russia and rising US interest rates, has pushed the global south to the brink of a new debt crisis.
These challenges may seem insurmountable, but the West can turn them into opportunities. By providing relief to the global south through green energy financing, debt relief, and pandemic response, the West can improve its position geopolitically. The so-called new great game with China is a zero-sum contest. The best way to limit China’s influence is for the West to offer solutions to the problems faced by the rest of the world. On paper, the path forward is clear, but the question remains: is the West capable of taking it?
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