In the first presidential debate last night, the Republican candidates resembled characters from Tom Stoppard’s play “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead.” Similar to the minor figures in Hamlet who are distant from the main action, the candidates seemed to lack meaning without former President Donald Trump at the center of their drama. While the debate contained moments of heat and policy disputes, it failed to address the central story of whether any candidate can challenge Trump’s lead in the race. The candidates appeared to lose sight of the fact that Trump is significantly ahead in national polls. Republican consultant Alex Conant noted that none of the candidates made an argument for why they would be a better nominee than Trump.
The debate’s focus on topics like the economy, climate change, and abortion, as well as the fear of backlash from Trump supporters, may have contributed to the candidates’ avoidance of direct confrontation with Trump. However, this strategy mirrors their previous approach throughout the campaign, which was deferential to Trump. The candidates missed the opportunity to challenge Trump on his attempts to overturn the 2020 election and his role in inciting the January 6 insurrection. The lack of urgency in addressing the question of “Trump or the future” may hinder their chances of gaining support and dislodging Trump from his strong position in the polls.
Despite this, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley stood out in the debate, delivering a forceful performance and criticizing Trump’s increase in national debt. She was seen as a viable alternative for Republicans concerned about Trump’s baggage. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy attempted to disrupt the conversation, but his behavior and absolutist positions limited his potential appeal. Senator Tim Scott failed to make a significant impact, while former Vice President Mike Pence defended his actions on January 6. Governor Ron DeSantis didn’t fill Trump’s shoes as the focal point of the debate, but he reminded conservative voters why they liked him before his presidential campaign. Governor Chris Christie connected with voters hostile to Trump, particularly in New Hampshire. However, it is unlikely that any candidate can meaningfully weaken Trump’s position in the race, unless his legal troubles become more prominent and damaging to his image among Republican voters. Ultimately, judicial institutions may be the only entities capable of bringing Trump back to Earth in the eyes of the Republican base.
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