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The defining moments that showcased Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership took place on February 25 of last year. While Russian troops approached Kyiv, the Ukrainian president took to the streets with his colleagues, assuring citizens of their commitment to protect their independence and country.
In stark contrast, Vladimir Putin’s response to the brief Wagner militia threat on Moscow over the weekend is noteworthy. From the comfort of his office, the Russian president expressed anger, accusing others of “betrayal” and “treason.” He then seemed to vanish, leading to speculation that he had left Moscow, although Kremlin officials later claimed he was working in his office.
The contrast between Zelenskyy and Putin is striking. On the one hand, we see courage, comradeship, and a united display of national strength. On the other hand, fear, isolation, and division prevail.
The Prigozhin rebellion may be over for now, but returning to a state of normalcy in Russia is an unrealistic expectation. The uprising has exposed the cracks in the Putin regime, and this process is likely to accelerate following the events of the past weekend.
It is now evident that Putin is facing a two-front battle for survival. There’s the war in Ukraine and the stability of his internal regime, with these fronts being interconnected. Setbacks in Ukraine will inevitably worsen his situation at home, and vice versa.
The events of the past weekend cannot be overlooked. Russians have heard Yevgeny Prigozhin accuse Putin of starting a war in Ukraine based on falsehoods about Ukrainian and NATO aggression. They witnessed Putin dropping all charges against Prigozhin in exchange for stopping his advance on Moscow. This shift occurred with the help of Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, whom Putin has previously shown disdain for. Most significantly, Russians have seen a rebel militia march on Moscow after capturing Rostov, a city with a population of over 1 million, while their powerful army and feared security services were unable to prevent it.
The Wagner forces, Russia’s most effective fighters in Ukraine, will now be disbanded, and their leader sent into exile. However, expecting battle-hardened rebels to simply assimilate into Russian society or incorporating them into the Russian army poses significant challenges.
Russian forces in Ukraine may begin to question the sustainability of domestic support for the war effort. Prigozhin’s rebellion and his critical assessment of the reasons behind the war will undoubtedly impact morale. As John Kerry once said during the Vietnam War, “How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?”
Ukrainians, on the other hand, recognize that the disarray in Russian ranks presents an opportunity. They may choose to deploy reserve troops for a counter-offensive and leverage new arguments at the upcoming NATO summit. Allies who previously suggested negotiating with Putin and believed Russia to be invincible will now fall silent. Simultaneously, Putin’s international backers will rethink their support and actively contemplate post-Putin scenarios for Russia.
Nonetheless, it would be premature to assume anything is predetermined, including Putin’s downfall. His friend Recep Tayyip Erdoğan weathered a coup attempt in Turkey in 2016 and remains in power.
Yet the odds are increasingly against Putin’s survival. Prigozhin continues to pose a threat as a genuine thug, comfortable on the frontlines, unlike Putin, who prefers photo ops while dreading infection.
It is highly unlikely that Prigozhin will choose a quiet retirement in the Belarusian countryside. He will likely persist as a vocal and dangerous critic of Russian military leadership and Putin himself.
Putin may be tempted to scapegoat some of the military leaders targeted by Prigozhin. Generals Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov have clearly failed in both Ukraine and domestically, making them convenient targets. However, removing them could further weaken Putin’s image, while validating Prigozhin’s claims.
The search for scapegoats may also fracture the Russian elite. Putin has endured due to the understanding that many powerful figures in Russia’s hierarchy are dependent on him and the system he has established.
Although sticking with Putin once seemed like the safe choice for the elite, the crumbling system is forcing a reevaluation of their calculations.
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