Biden has garnered widespread support from the party establishment, as evidenced by the formal endorsement from the D.N.C. This endorsement not only gives him an advantage with a more favorable primary calendar but also means that there will be no debates sponsored by the organization. Typically, incumbent presidents are given this level of deference.
However, there are notable factors that could impact Biden’s chances. Firstly, he is already the oldest president in history and would be 86 if he were to serve a second term. Additionally, polls consistently indicate that a majority of Democrats do not want him to run again, although this doesn’t necessarily mean they wouldn’t vote for him. His approval ratings also hover around 40 percent, which is concerning.
Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the son of the late senator and attorney general, and nephew of the slain president, has polled at 20 percent nationally among Democratic voters. He has started a campaign blitz in New Hampshire, where there is significant dissatisfaction over the D.N.C.’s revised primary calendar. New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status is considered a vital part of the state’s culture and is protected by state law. Iowa’s reaction, on the other hand, has been relatively muted due to the diminishing number of noteworthy Democrats in the state. However, Iowa Democrats may defy the D.N.C. and align their caucuses with the Republicans.
Kennedy, once respected as an environmentalist, has faced criticism for his anti-vaccine advocacy, endorsement of conspiracy theories, and incendiary statements. Nevertheless, he may appeal to libertarian voters in New Hampshire. This has caused concern among Democrats in the state.
Despite the challenges and concern surrounding the primary process, Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, asserts that New Hampshire will maintain its first-in-the-nation primary status. The Democrats’ attempt to challenge this is unlikely to succeed. D. Arnie Arnesen, a left-leaning talk-show host and former Democratic state representative in New Hampshire, acknowledges the criticism against her state and its demographics. However, she agrees with Buckley’s stance and believes that there is no benefit for Joe Biden or the Democrats in changing the primary system.
As chairman of the D.N.C., Jaime Harrison faces the task of mediating between disgruntled state Democrats and a White House that expects loyalty from the national organization. Despite the challenges facing the party, Harrison remains optimistic. He acknowledges issues such as the New Hampshire situation, Biden’s age, and the declining support among certain demographic groups. Additionally, there is concern about the Senate map, with Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia at risk of losing their seats, along with Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, who was formerly a Democrat. This could leave the Democrats in a minority position indefinitely.
In Harrison’s office at D.N.C. headquarters, a portrait of Biden with Jim Clyburn, the South Carolina congressman who played a crucial role in rescuing Biden’s candidacy in 2020, hangs on the wall. Above Harrison’s desk, there is a vintage sign for Ron Brown, the first Black chairman of the D.N.C. These figures serve as inspirations to Harrison, who has deep connections with Clyburn, having previously interned for him and later worked as his director of floor operations. Following his time in Congress, Harrison had a successful career as a lobbyist at the Podesta Group. With Clyburn’s support, he became chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party and later ran an unsuccessful but high-profile and expensive campaign for a Senate seat against Lindsey Graham in 2020. Now, as the head of the D.N.C., he prioritizes their home state of South Carolina.
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