The Australia Letter serves as a weekly newsletter from our Australia bureau. You can sign up to receive it via email. With the possibility of Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination and winning the U.S. presidential election in 2024, many questions arise regarding the impact on Australia. These questions delve into regional security, political culture, and democracy. Bruce Wolpe, author of “Trump’s Australia,” addresses these concerns in an interview with The Times. The following is a condensed and edited version of the discussion.
In “Trump’s Australia,” you argue that the potential re-election of Trump poses an existential question for Australia in terms of its alliance with a divided United States. Could you elaborate on this notion?
If Trump were to become president again, two classes of issues would surface. Firstly, there is the entire foreign policy agenda, which includes economic policies, trade relations, international institutions, as well as values associated with Trump’s presidency. These need to be managed accordingly. However, beneath these issues lies a fundamental concern regarding the U.S.-Australian alliance. If Trump were to employ troops to enforce “law and order” within the country’s streets, detain journalists, disregard laws passed by Congress, defy orders from the U.S. Supreme Court, and interfere in elections by overturning results, then America’s democracy as we know it would be endangered. Australia aligns itself with the U.S. because of shared values such as liberty, freedom, human rights, democracy, and the rule of law. If the U.S. abandons these principles, then Australia must reevaluate its alignment and the implications it has for its regional standing and global actions. It’s a matter that necessitates early consideration.
What are the chances of Trump winning the 2024 U.S. election?
At present, I believe his chances of securing the nomination exceed 50 percent, whereas his chances of winning the election fall below that threshold. However, two significant factors may dampen his prospects. Firstly, his extreme views may be tolerable to most Republican voters but not the rest of the country. Furthermore, the economy and its outlook serve as the primary drivers of the election. President Biden views the horizon with optimism as inflation recedes, interest rates may decrease, job growth remains strong, and employment levels are robust. A favorable economic landscape benefits the incumbent, whereas economic troubles could lean in favor of Trump.
How would a potential second Trump term impact security in the Indo-Pacific region?
Trump’s primary focus lies in securing favorable trade relationships between the U.S. and China. However, his commitment to security arrangements within the Pacific and Asia-Pacific region is less robust. He nearly signed a document removing all U.S. troops from South Korea, and he has expressed dissatisfaction with the costs associated with maintaining troops and bases in Japan. One possible scenario involves Trump prioritizing a beneficial trade deal with China while reducing the profile and engagement of the Quad and AUKUS agreements, which China perceives as a threat. Furthermore, there is the issue of Taiwan. To decrease the U.S.’s presence in the Asia Pacific and facilitate trade, Trump might be inclined to not obstruct China’s aspirations regarding Taiwan. This scenario presents potential challenges.
What steps can Australia take to safeguard its interests against this possibility?
Senior officials from both parties in both countries have emphasized the importance of Australia adopting a commanding posture of engagement in the Asia Pacific region. This entails establishing deeper strategic engagement across the area, forming alliances, securing high-quality trade agreements, strengthening independent relations with Asian countries, increasing foreign aid, and enhancing Australia’s presence in Washington to manage these matters. Interestingly, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong have been following this path since coming into power.
In your book, you argue that a Trump-like figure would not succeed in Australian politics as they have in the U.S. Can you explain this further?
Before writing this book, I noticed that Australians would become fearful when things happened in the U.S. and wonder if a figure like Trump could succeed in leading our country. However, Australia possesses safeguards that many Americans wish they had. For one, an outsider like Trump cannot become prime minister. The head of the majority party in the House of Representatives assumes the role of prime minister, so an outsider cannot simply gain support and emerge as the leader. Additionally, compulsory voting prevents extremists from gaining power. In the U.S., powerful issues like guns or abortion heavily influence voting participation. Gun owners represent avid voters. However, compulsory voting means that Australia’s political landscape will consistently lean towards the center-left or center-right. It also means that minorities cannot dictate the country’s direction on significant issues. While elements of Trump’s rhetoric may creep into Australian political discourse, they do not gain significant traction. Our political culture and resilience prevent extreme viewpoints from prevailing.
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