The recent local elections marked a significant setback for the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson’s leadership, and it is essential to acknowledge this fact without trying to find excuses or spin the narrative in a different direction. However, the excuses keep pouring in.
One common claim is that these losses were confined to London and can be attributed to a broader realignment happening in politics. The Tories argue that they made up for it by performing well in the so-called Red Wall areas. Another excuse is the notion that there has been a sudden surge in university-educated graduates who now lean towards left-wing politics. Furthermore, some argue that the fact that Labour did not perform exceptionally well outside London is what truly matters. Lastly, there are those who believe that people were simply frustrated with short-term circumstances that were beyond the government’s control.
However, we must reject these claims and excuses as they are all flawed. While there were a few bright spots for the Tories, such as Nuneaton, they lost nearly 500 seats overall, which has caused significant damage to the coalition they had been carefully building. Inadvertently, they are reverting to a disastrous strategy reminiscent of the early 2010s, with a different demographic.
It is crucial to note that the Tories’ poor performance extends beyond London; they did not perform well enough in the Red Wall areas either, and this is happening even before the full impact of the cost of living crisis is felt.
While Labour’s local performance may have been underwhelming, it is important to recognize their victories in areas like Kirklees, Rossendale, and Cumberland, where the Tories have three MPs. Additionally, Labour has a significant presence in Wales and Scotland, securing 20 MPs, which is half of the Tory working majority. Yet, their performance in these regions was a disaster.
Wales, a region that voted Leave, witnessed a partial Tory renaissance that has now reversed. Welsh Conservatives lost their only council and almost half their seats. They were also positioning themselves as the main Unionist alternative to the SNP in Scotland, but they slipped to third place. If the Tories continue to lose seats in the capital, as well as in the Red Wall and the blue wall, this could lead to a left-wing coalition with Sir Keir Starmer or a compelling successor as Prime Minister.
Therefore, it is misguided to solely focus on Labour’s lackluster share of the vote. The Tories require an absolute majority of seats in Westminster, while Labour could form a coalition with the SNP and Lib Dems. Nicola Sturgeon would hold significant influence in such a scenario. Given Sinn Fein’s success in Northern Ireland, any further chaos could jeopardize the Union.
Even if it were true that the Red Wall remains loyal to Boris Johnson, the post-Brexit coalition is not limited to the northern working class. It also relies on the support of traditional Tories, including suburban and rural voters, as well as the aspirational youth who aspire to own homes and build families.
It is worth noting that many of the lost London seats are populated by Millennials living in rented accommodation. The government’s failure to tackle the exorbitant cost of housing speaks to a larger problem that is eroding support among potential conservative supporters.
Attempting to appease everyone through a triangulating strategy that avoids offending anyone is alienating those who should naturally align with conservative values. Additionally, the green agenda has failed to generate electoral gains. The Tories continue to lose high-earning university graduates, a key target group, while also angering other segments of the population.
The drubbing in London was particularly notable in areas that the Tories should have secured. They suffered significant losses in many other parts of the capital as well. For instance, the Tories are now left with just one councillor in Richmond, down from 39 in 2014. However, it is important to remember that 40 percent of London voted to Leave, indicating potential support for a populist center-right party prioritizing the concerns of the working and lower-middle-class voters from diverse backgrounds.
It is frustrating that the Tories have failed to engage with suburban Londoners. Instead, they have implemented policies that make life more difficult and expensive for their core electorate. It is essential to recognize that the outcome of last Thursday’s elections was not a mere realignment, but a nationwide disaster. Moreover, the pain for Red Wall voters is just beginning.
If the Bank of England’s predictions are even partially accurate, we are heading towards a recession later this year, characterized by rising unemployment and catastrophic inflation. This combination proved devastating for Britain in the 1970s. Despite the fact that the left-wing opposition alliance may propose even worse solutions, the trajectory of a Tory government that raises taxes while bills continue to skyrocket is alarmingly predictable.
Unless the government quickly changes course, these local election results could be indicative of even more dire consequences in the future.
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