Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s apparent death has left many speculating and questioning the stability of Russia. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to silence Prigozhin’s criticism of the Ukraine war, the news of his death, potentially an assassination, only adds to the perception of instability reminiscent of Stalin’s era.
According to Tatiana Stoyanoya, a Russia analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, regardless of what actually happened to Prigozhin, the Russian elite will view it as a retaliatory act, and the Kremlin will fuel this belief. CIA Director William J. Burns also states that Russians will assume Putin had a hand in the plane crash.
In the short term, if the facts are confirmed, Putin will strengthen his position. The man he accused of “armed mutiny” is now gone, and Russian defenses are holding in Ukraine. However, Putin’s political prowess has been damaged. Some members of his inner circle allegedly share Prigozhin’s criticism of Putin’s impulsive invasion of Ukraine and his subsequent tactics. This skepticism may extend to the Russian security services.
Although a few members of Prigozhin’s militia threatened another “march on Moscow” on social media, they lack the numbers to carry out such an action. Nevertheless, Prigozhin’s demise may increase political anxiety in Russia.
There is a growing circle of doubt within the Russian elite about Putin’s erratic decision-making. His reckless invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is a prime example, but he has also made other mistakes since then. Putin’s consolidation of power, ironically, may reduce the risk of escalation in Ukraine but raises concerns about his indecisiveness.
China plays a crucial role in Putin’s military and political survival. Prigozhin’s death could boost China’s confidence in Russia’s staying power in Ukraine. Biden administration officials believe China’s help is increasingly important for Russia’s military presence in Ukraine, primarily through boosting shipments of dual-use items.
While there is a consensus that Ukrainian troops are unlikely to reach the Black Sea this year, there is a belief that Ukraine’s persistent assaults could weaken the Russian army. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is likely to escalate efforts to bring the war to Russia through drone strikes and deniable cross-border assaults.
Prigozhin’s message that the war in Ukraine isn’t worth the cost to the nation will continue to resonate. If Ukraine and its Western allies can sustain the fight, the intensity of the critique may grow. Prigozhin’s death serves as a warning rather than a martyrdom.
Overall, the death of Yevgeniy Prigozhin leaves many questions and adds to the sense of instability in Russia. Despite Putin’s attempts to control the narrative, skepticism of his actions and decision-making continues to grow within the Russian elite and society.
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