Amidst the numerous strategic errors committed by Vladimir Putin in his aggression against Ukraine, perhaps the most significant miscalculation was his assumption that it would halt Nato’s expansion. In fact, it has had the opposite effect, prompting traditionally neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden to consider joining the alliance. These countries have witnessed the consequences faced by a Russian neighbor that Moscow deemed to have defied its wishes, and they are understandably concerned that they could suffer a similar fate.
Finland has valid historical reasons to worry, given the Soviet invasion in 1939, which the Finns valiantly resisted for several months before being compelled to cede 10% of their territory. The Red Army suffered significant casualties, and its poor performance on the battlefield encouraged Hitler to believe that Russia would be an easy conquest. To this day, Finland maintains conscription and could mobilize an army of 280,000 troops at a moment’s notice – four times the capacity of the UK.
Sweden’s policy of neutrality dates back to the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Although technically abolished when Sweden joined the European Union in 1995, the country has maintained a non-aligned stance in terms of foreign and security policy.
Both Finland and Sweden recently held discussions with Boris Johnson regarding the implications and requirements of joining Nato. They also signed mutual security agreements. If these countries do decide to join the alliance, Nato’s borders with Russia will extend by an additional 800 miles, from Turkey to the Arctic Circle.
A decision from both countries is expected soon, reflecting the geopolitical upheaval caused by Russia’s invasion – an invasion supposedly undertaken to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato, despite the unlikelihood of such an eventuality. Now, all nations within Russia’s sphere of influence have concerns for their security if they remain outside the alliance, particularly Moldova.
The Baltic states, which have long felt threatened by Russian aggression, have already joined Nato and rely on the protection granted by Article 5 – an attack on any of them triggers a response from the entire 30-nation bloc. Finland and Sweden would not receive this guarantee until their applications are accepted. Until then, they face a moment of vulnerability, with Russia threatening the Finns with a “military technical response” if they proceed with their intentions.
In light of the developments in Ukraine, it would be wise for Nato to expedite the accession process for Finland and Sweden. These countries are well-suited to become members and would bring valuable expertise to the alliance.
Amidst the numerous strategic errors committed by Vladimir Putin in his aggression against Ukraine, perhaps the most significant miscalculation was his assumption that it would halt Nato’s expansion. In fact, it has had the opposite effect, prompting traditionally neutral countries such as Finland and Sweden to consider joining the alliance. These countries have witnessed the consequences faced by a Russian neighbor that Moscow deemed to have defied its wishes, and they are understandably concerned that they could suffer a similar fate.
Finland has valid historical reasons to worry, given the Soviet invasion in 1939, which the Finns valiantly resisted for several months before being compelled to cede 10% of their territory. The Red Army suffered significant casualties, and its poor performance on the battlefield encouraged Hitler to believe that Russia would be an easy conquest. To this day, Finland maintains conscription and could mobilize an army of 280,000 troops at a moment’s notice – four times the capacity of the UK.
Sweden’s policy of neutrality dates back to the end of the Napoleonic Wars. Although technically abolished when Sweden joined the European Union in 1995, the country has maintained a non-aligned stance in terms of foreign and security policy.
Both Finland and Sweden recently held discussions with Boris Johnson regarding the implications and requirements of joining Nato. They also signed mutual security agreements. If these countries do decide to join the alliance, Nato’s borders with Russia will extend by an additional 800 miles, from Turkey to the Arctic Circle.
A decision from both countries is expected soon, reflecting the geopolitical upheaval caused by Russia’s invasion – an invasion supposedly undertaken to prevent Ukraine from joining Nato, despite the unlikelihood of such an eventuality. Now, all nations within Russia’s sphere of influence have concerns for their security if they remain outside the alliance, particularly Moldova.
The Baltic states, which have long felt threatened by Russian aggression, have already joined Nato and rely on the protection granted by Article 5 – an attack on any of them triggers a response from the entire 30-nation bloc. Finland and Sweden would not receive this guarantee until their applications are accepted. Until then, they face a moment of vulnerability, with Russia threatening the Finns with a “military technical response” if they proceed with their intentions.
In light of the developments in Ukraine, it would be wise for Nato to expedite the accession process for Finland and Sweden. These countries are well-suited to become members and would bring valuable expertise to the alliance.