When the temperatures rise in the South, it’s not uncommon for young children to suffer second-degree burns from the scorching concrete beneath their bare feet. Falling on the blistering pavement can even result in skin grafts. With the intense heat, kids are forced to stay indoors all day, just trying to survive. The extreme conditions can also cause windshield wipers to stick, and the ocean itself becomes uncomfortably warm. With just one power outage, thousands of people could bake to death inside their homes. One would think that people would flee such a nightmarish landscape, but paradoxically, as record-breaking heatwaves hit the Sun Belt region, its popularity only continues to grow.
The data, recently presented in The Economist, paints a striking picture – 12 out of the 15 fastest-growing cities in the United States are located in the Sun Belt. Furthermore, 86 percent of the top 50 zip codes that experienced the largest influx of new residents since the start of the pandemic are in scorching hot states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
While some people did move to cooler cities in Idaho, Utah, and Colorado during the pandemic, hot locations overwhelmingly dominate population growth and migration trends. According to Redfin data, the 50 counties with the highest risk of extreme heat saw a nearly 5 percent increase in population due to migration from 2016 to 2020. On the other hand, the 50 counties with the lowest heat risk experienced a 1.4 percent decrease in population during the same period. Leading the pack of hot counties is Texas’s Williamson County, near Austin, with a 16 percent growth in population driven by inbound migration. Notably, every single home in this county is at “high heat risk”.
Despite the South’s increasingly Venus-like temperatures, people continue to be drawn to the region. I count myself among them, as someone who has spent the past year house-hunting in Florida. The irresistible appeal of Sun Belt cities can be attributed to three factors: affordable housing, abundant job opportunities, and warm winters. While each factor alone may not be enough to attract large numbers of people, when combined, they create an unstoppable force, attracting disenchanted northerners and Californians like a blazing tornado.
Affordable housing is an undeniable common denominator in every sunny, booming city. Nowadays, you don’t have to wonder what it’s like to live in a different world from the one you know. Simply open up Redfin and see how much house you can get in Dallas for less than your rent in New York. With a median home price of $975,000 in Los Angeles, it’s no wonder the city is losing residents to more affordable locales like Phoenix. As Harvard economist Edward Glaeser explains, it’s much easier to mass produce housing in the suburbs of Phoenix or Houston than it is in coastal California or the Northeast. Stringent construction permits and zoning requirements in the Northeast and West make it difficult to build affordable housing in desirable areas. Additionally, it’s easier to build in vast, uninhabited deserts compared to the mountainous regions of California or historic cities like Boston. Glaeser’s 2007 study found that housing supply increased 20 percent more in the South than in other parts of the country during the 1970s and 80s.
In fact, many people end up in the South because they initially aim for the perfect climate of California but quickly realize they can’t afford it. So, they settle for a similarly warm and more affordable place like Phoenix or Austin. Elon Musk is a well-known example of this phenomenon.
Another crucial element is the business-friendly environment in these hot, affordable cities. Austin, for instance, experienced a boom during the pandemic, while Midland, a similarly warm and even cheaper city in West Texas, did not. The key lies in a complex mix of economic growth, human capital, and a certain yuppie je ne sais quoi. The Sun Belt cities that have thrived are primarily located in states with low taxes, making them attractive for businesses. Additionally, many of these cities boast prestigious universities that produce highly educated workers. These areas have successfully created “agglomeration economies” by clustering similar types of companies together in close proximity. Austin, with the University of Texas, an Apple campus, and an influx of upwardly mobile individuals seeking refuge from high housing prices, demonstrates the power of this phenomenon. Midland, however, lacks these critical factors.
Austin began its strategy of attracting tech workers as early as the 1970s and 80s when the then-dean of UT’s business school, George Kozmetsky, brought computing companies to the area and launched incubators to nurture local talent. This strategy of clustering companies near each other is also evident in Silicon Valley, Kendall Square in Cambridge, and Research Triangle Park in North Carolina. Knowledge workers prefer to be close to those who can offer mentorship and job opportunities. It’s always nice to have other companies to jump to when you’re ready for a change. The presence of businesses and educated workers attracts more of them, creating a virtuous cycle. Austin witnessed the highest influx of tech workers among major cities in the first year of the pandemic.
Many of the thriving Sun Belt cities also offer the seeds of a hip Millennial lifestyle, with live music, outdoor recreation, and an array of interesting bars and restaurants. As newcomers demand more microbreweries and trendy dining options, these cities blossom and attract even more people. Cullum Clark, the director of the Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative, explains that as people arrive, the place transforms, growing larger, richer, and more cosmopolitan. This is precisely what Californian transplants tend to gravitate towards.
Lastly, warm winters act as a catalyst for the affordability and job opportunities that hot cities offer. People may consider moving to areas with new businesses and $300,000 houses, but when they see hundreds of Instagram posts showcasing 70-degree February days, they can’t resist calling the moving company. Richard Florida, a professor at the University of Toronto, suggests that word of mouth and social media play a significant role in creating buzz around a particular place. “My friends are there. It’s fun. They’re going out to restaurants; they’re going to the…” Certainly, warm weather isn’t the sole factor behind the rise of the Sun Belt, but it’s an undeniable contributing factor that can’t be ignored. As economist Edward Glaeser points out, no other variable predicts metropolitan area growth over the past 120 years better than January temperature. People simply enjoy playing golf in the winter. Enrico Moretti, an economist at UC Berkeley, adds that people truly dislike cold winters. Jenny Schuetz, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, agrees, stating that even though people may not openly admit it, they have a preference for warm weather.
Ultimately, warm winters serve to amplify the attractiveness of affordable housing and abundant job opportunities. While people may consider various factors such as amenities, quality of life, schools, and crime rates when deciding to move, it would be remiss to overlook the appeal of sunny skies in the Sun Belt. As housing prices soar and climates become more unpredictable in other regions, it’s no wonder that the South continues to draw people in with its affordable homes and pleasant weather.
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