In the realm of Republican presidential politics, it seems that the game is nearly over before it has barely begun. Donald Trump, known for flaunting the results of dubious online polls in 2016, now has the luxury of relying on reputable media polls to showcase his dominance. The latest national CBS poll shows Trump leading Ron DeSantis by a staggering 46 points, while the most recent Fox News poll indicates a more modest 37-point lead for Trump. These numbers resemble the figures one would expect from a sitting president who is effortlessly sidelining opponents in his quest for renomination. Interestingly, the Democratic side of the race shares similar outcomes. According to the Fox poll, Joe Biden is overpowering Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with a 64 to 17 percent lead, with Marianne Williamson capturing 9% of the vote. Similarly, a new CBS national poll has Trump leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by a sizable margin of 62 to 16 percent.
Thus, one may wonder if there is such a thing as a mercy rule in presidential politics. Trump could be forgiven for looking at his competitors and seeing a highly regarded governor whose campaign is in a free fall, shedding staff and dismissing a campaign manager. There’s also a charismatic entrepreneur who poses no threat but conveniently divides the non-Trump vote. Additionally, a cheerful Senator has made some progress but has yet to break out. A former vice president, despised by the MAGA crowd for all the wrong reasons, a skilled fighter but an unpopular ex-governor, and a plethora of other candidates who are simply not worth Trump’s attention. The current non-Trump vote is simply not significant enough to reach 50 percent. It is no wonder that Trump is acting as if the race is already concluded, with his super PAC attacking Biden and claiming that there is no need for him to participate in Republican debates.
While Trump’s confidence may be well-founded, a sense of inevitability can have unintended consequences. On one hand, it demoralizes the opposition and communicates strength; on the other hand, it can foster a sense of arrogance and take voters for granted. Furthermore, Trump must still secure a victory in Iowa, where his support is somewhat less solid. After all the claims of election theft in 2020 and the current boasts of his dominance, a defeat in a fair process overseen by fellow Republicans would be a significant setback that could change the dynamics of the entire race. The recent NBC News/Des Moines Register poll shows Trump with 42% support, with DeSantis at 19% and Tim Scott at 9%. While Trump holds a substantial lead, both DeSantis and Scott have a substantial portion of the electorate considering them as their second choice, and they boast higher favorable ratings compared to Trump’s.
It is worth noting that the survey was conducted prior to the recent indictment in Georgia. At that time, Trump held a 38-20 lead over DeSantis—not an insurmountable advantage, particularly in the middle of August. Iowa has a history of late-breaking developments. Rick Santorum, who won Iowa in 2012, didn’t gain momentum until late December, while Mike Huckabee, the victor four years prior, experienced a surge in November. If another candidate is going to replicate such a climb, the significant momentum may still be several months away. So, while it may feel late in the game, the reality is that the race is far from over.
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