Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida is facing unexpected challenges in positioning himself as the most viable Republican candidate for the 2024 elections. Surprisingly, these challenges have less to do with former President Donald Trump and more to do with President Biden. Republican voters have been inundated with clips of Biden stumbling over his words, which has led them to perceive the 80-year-old incumbent as weak and beatable by any Republican candidate, even Trump. This perception has hindered DeSantis’ argument that the party needs to move beyond Trump to secure a victory in 2024.
The concept of “electability,” or which candidate has the best chance of winning a general election, gained prominence after the disappointing losses of Trump-backed candidates in swing states during the 2022 midterms. It became a way to convince Republican voters, who were still loyal to Trump, to consider supporting a new face in 2024. However, interviews with pollsters, strategists, elected officials, and Republican voters in early voting states reveal that the negative opinion of Biden’s mental acuity and political skills has complicated this argument.
Republicans no longer feel the same pressure to nominate a new candidate because they believe Biden is weak. In a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 58% of Republican primary voters believed Trump would be better suited to defeat Biden, while only 28% chose DeSantis. This perception has diminished the importance of electability in the minds of primary voters.
Despite the declining urgency of electability, Trump’s rivals continue to use it as a tool to sway Republican voters away from him. They hope that Trump’s legal troubles will eventually reignite concerns about electability. However, the fact that recent polls indicate a close race between Biden and Trump makes this argument less convincing.
Conservative media, particularly Fox News, has influenced Republican views. While Fox has elevated DeSantis as the future of the Republican Party, its emphasis on Biden’s frailties may have inadvertently undermined DeSantis’ campaign. Republicans who relied on conservative outlets overwhelmingly believed Trump was better capable of defeating Biden.
There is no doubt that Biden has visibly aged, and incidents like his slip onstage at an Air Force graduation ceremony have cemented the perception of his frailty. Google search records reflect peak interest in “Biden old” during significant moments, such as his State of the Union address, his announcement of a 2024 run, and his onstage fall. Interviews with Republican voters in Iowa confirm the widespread belief that Biden is weak and deteriorating.
Some Republicans worry that their voters have become complacent about the challenge of defeating a Democratic incumbent president. The last time this happened was more than four decades ago with Jimmy Carter. Electability extends beyond defeating Biden; Republicans need a candidate who can build a majority coalition and win both the House and Senate.
Running a primary campaign centered on electability has always been challenging for Republicans. The party’s voters tend to ignore the preferences of political insiders and rebel against the party establishment. Moreover, the specific hurdles posed by Trump, who was initially considered unelectable, and the refusal to accept his 2020 loss within the party, add further complications.
Recent polls indicate that Republican voters prioritize policy positions over electability when choosing a candidate. They want someone who aligns with their views rather than someone most likely to beat Biden. DeSantis recognizes this and has begun emphasizing his own electability. He has criticized Trump and argued that relitigating past issues would be detrimental to the party’s future.
DeSantis is gaining ground in Iowa, where he is focusing his campaign. Anti-Trump ads from Win it Back PAC have sought to undermine perceptions of Trump’s electability, but Iowa Republicans still see Trump as having a better chance of beating Biden, albeit by a smaller margin than in national polls. However, college-educated Republicans in Iowa view DeSantis as more electable by a 14-point margin compared to Trump.
Although DeSantis faces his own electability challenges, particularly among college-educated Republicans, he is positioning himself as a viable alternative to Trump. The belief in Biden’s weakness has complicated the electability argument, but it remains a powerful tool for Trump’s rivals, at least for now. The future of the Republican Party and the 2024 elections remain uncertain.
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