The Inaugural Major Challenge in President Trump’s Second Term

Former President Donald Trump’s legal troubles won’t disappear if he wins the 2024 presidential election, despite what his supporters and opponents may think. In fact, his victory would lead to a crisis of presidential legitimacy and generate significant chaos, potentially resulting in another impeachment. Trump currently faces criminal exposure in both federal jurisdictions, including Florida, the District of Columbia, New York, and Georgia, with the possibility of more cases to follow.

As president, Trump wouldn’t have the power to directly quash these proceedings on his own. His only option would be a presidential self-pardon, which he claims is legal. However, the Supreme Court would have the final say on this matter, risking their reputation by protecting Trump from justice. Trump could also order his attorney general to instruct the special counsel not to bring a case against his self-pardon and argue that only the special counsel has standing to sue. This would create a complex situation involving the attorney general, the special counsel, and the professionals in the Department of Justice, with uncertain outcomes in Congress and the country.

Furthermore, if Trump were to win the presidency without a majority of the popular vote, his arguments for self-pardoning and restraining prosecutors would become even more challenging. Additionally, he would still face indictments in state courts, where he has no pardon power. Trump may attempt to order the Department of Justice to argue against state courts’ criminal jurisdiction over a serving president, but this would likely lead to mass resignations within the department and a constitutional crisis.

Other strategies Trump could employ, like ordering the special counsel to stand down or firing them, would also face similar problems and could result in the dissolution of the federal Department of Justice. Despite Trump’s indifference to impeachment, a second term focused on protecting himself from alleged crimes would generate a permanent crisis and potentially lead to a Democratic congressional landslide in 2026.

Trump and his followers may believe they can swiftly overcome these challenges, but they would be deluding themselves. The battle to use the power of the presidency to evade accountability would consume his entire term and create even more division and chaos. Trump’s past strategy of deflecting attention to new scandals would not distract or appease the American public but rather embitter them. Attempting a self-pardon would not be akin to President Ford pardoning Nixon; it would engender nationwide convulsions and damage the country’s constitutional framework.

A second Trump presidency would only bring further divide, chaos, and paralysis that would persist until its end, and possibly beyond.

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