In the early hours of March 18, former President Donald J. Trump made a social media post on his Truth Social website, predicting that he would be “arrested on Tuesday of next week.” This statement, although based on inaccurate timing, set off a chain of events that had a significant impact on the Republican nominating contest. Donors responded by sending checks, Fox News changed its stance, the party apparatus rushed to defend Trump, and his polls soared.
These series of events, referred to as the “indictment effect,” offer insights into the current state of the Republican Party. The New York Times conducted an analysis that involved reviewing polls, interviewing primary voters, examining campaign finance records, and scrutinizing media coverage and party emails. The analysis revealed the extent of Trump’s influence over the party and the conditioning of Republican voters to see his legal troubles as attacks on themselves. It also highlighted the unconventional reality where criminal charges can actually enhance one’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.
Renowned Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio commented on Trump’s ability to rally his supporters, stating, “Donald Trump has certainly taken the rally around the flag phenomenon to a new level. With Trump, the rally around the flag happens to be about him personally.”
Prior to Trump’s indictment, Fox News and Rupert Murdoch’s media empire had been shifting their focus from Trump to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, positioning him as the future of the Republican Party. However, Trump’s legal troubles caused a shift in priorities within the conservative movement and media landscape. Influential conservative talk radio hosts rallied behind Trump, even those who previously supported DeSantis. Media programming began centering on the idea that Trump was a victim of a justice system manipulated by Democrats, overshadowing DeSantis’ fight against “wokeness.”
Trump’s indictments received significant media attention, with each step of the legal process covered extensively. His team strategically capitalized on this coverage, treating court appearances like campaign events and coordinating with various news outlets. This ensured that Trump remained in the spotlight, leaving little room for his rivals to gain traction.
The impact of Trump’s legal troubles was not limited to media coverage. The entire official structure of the Republican Party rallied around Trump following his indictments. The Republican National Committee (RNC) temporarily halted Trump-centric fundraising emails to maintain neutrality in the primary race. However, when rumors of Trump’s imminent indictment surfaced, they resumed sending emails expressing outrage and soliciting donations. The RNC even sent a countdown clock to “President Trump arrest” to its subscribers. Party leaders, including Ronna McDaniel, Kevin McCarthy, and Elise Stefanik, made frequent appearances on Fox News to defend Trump, further strengthening the perception that this was Trump’s party.
Trump’s online fundraising saw a significant boost after his indictments. Prior to his legal troubles, he was averaging $129,000 raised per day in 2023. However, in the three weeks following his first indictment, he averaged over $778,000 per day. This surge in fundraising demonstrated the impact of his legal challenges on his online campaign machine.
In summary, Donald Trump’s prediction of his own arrest had far-reaching consequences for the Republican Party. It revealed his dominance over the party, the loyalty of his supporters, and the influential role of conservative media. Additionally, it showcased the unique dynamic where criminal charges can benefit a candidate’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.
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