Pauline Kael, known for her work as a film critic for The New Yorker, recognized that she was not a typical representative of the American population. It is often misinterpreted that she was shocked by Richard Nixon’s victory in the 1972 election because she claimed to not know anyone who had voted for him. However, Kael had actually acknowledged that she lived in a unique world and was only personally acquainted with one Nixon voter. This example serves as a reminder when considering future elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump surprised both Democrats and elite Republicans because they were oblivious to the existence and magnitude of his voter base. Similarly, Trump supporters were astounded by the large turnout for Joe Biden in 2020. Democrats often underestimate the support for Trump in rural and post-industrial areas, while Republicans underestimate the strength of opposition to Trump in traditionally non-Republican territories. The impact of candidates can be profound, with Barack Obama successfully mobilizing blue-city voters and Trump motivating turnout for both Republicans and Democrats.
Despite strong opposition to Trump, Republicans performed well in the House and Senate elections. This discrepancy between expectations and reality can be attributed to Trump’s ability to energize voters from both sides of the political spectrum. Anti-Trump voters played a significant role in Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.
This explains the mixed outcome of the 2020 election and the weaker performance of the GOP in the midterms. Without Trump on the ballot in 2022, many of his supporters decided to stay home, making it challenging for the GOP to regain control of the House and resulting in Senate seat losses. During the 2020 election, Trump’s presence motivated Republicans in non-urban areas to vote, but it also increased Democratic turnout in cities. This was detrimental to Trump in states like Arizona and Georgia, where a higher urban vote led to Democratic victories. The same pattern can be observed in Pennsylvania, where strong urban turnout in Philadelphia impacted the state’s results.
Looking ahead to 2024, House Republicans feel comfortable with Trump because most of them represent districts that would not be at risk if urban turnout surged. However, Senate Republicans are more apprehensive, as are Republicans eyeing gubernatorial and state-level positions, since a sudden increase in urban turnout can significantly influence the outcome in competitive states. This applies to the Electoral College as well. Although Trump’s national approval ratings against Biden are positive, a stronger motivation for urban Democrats to vote against Trump could once again jeopardize states like Arizona and Georgia. Republican strategists prefer to focus the election on Biden rather than Trump and aim to keep turnout low. They believe that the prospect of removing Biden from office will be enough to mobilize their base, while Democrats may not be as eager to vote for an aging and uncharismatic incumbent.
The only issue with this plan is the unwavering support Trump receives from the Republican base, making it risky to assume that voters will not turn out in significant numbers. Regardless of what happens in the future, the rural-urban divide will continue to complicate both parties’ strategies. Each party fears that voters they are unfamiliar with will show up in unexpected numbers. However, the GOP faces the additional challenge of urban areas growing while rural and post-industrial America is in decline. The party cannot abandon the base that Trump cultivated, but it also cannot rely solely on those voters to win elections. It is crucial for a future GOP leader to bridge the gap and reconnect the party with voters who may not know any Republicans.
Daniel McCarthy serves as the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
