In the months following Donald Trump’s indictment, an interesting phenomenon has occurred: his support among Republican voters in the presidential primary has actually increased. Despite facing multiple criminal charges, polls show that GOP voters are more likely to vote for him again. This trend has transformed Trump’s infamous statement from 2016, where he claimed he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and still retain voters, into something close to prophetic. While critics are concerned that this political boost from indictments could set a dangerous precedent, a new survey suggests these fears may be premature.
A group of university researchers conducted a comprehensive study and discovered a flaw in the way pollsters were assessing the impact of the indictments on Republican voters. Traditional polls directly asked respondents if the indictments had changed their opinion of Trump or their likelihood of voting for him. However, according to Matt Graham, one of the study’s authors, this type of question often leads to biased answers. It becomes a proxy for measuring voters’ pre-existing support for the former president. The researchers used the example of the 2017 Senate special election in Alabama, where accusations of sexual assault against Roy Moore actually increased support among Republicans, but ultimately led to his defeat.
To address this flaw, the researchers designed a survey that asked respondents to assess their view of Trump and their likelihood of voting for him without knowing about the indictments. They conducted a SurveyMonkey poll of over 5,000 Americans, with half of them answering questions in this counterfactual format. The results showed a significant difference compared to traditional polls. While the polls using the traditional format indicated increased support for Trump due to the indictments, the counterfactual framing actually slightly reduced his standing in the party, decreasing the likelihood of Republicans voting for him by 1.6%.
However, it is important to note that the real-world implications of these findings are currently limited. Trump maintains a substantial lead in early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire and national surveys. The slight reduction in support resulting from the indictments is unlikely to significantly impact his candidacy. Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, who conducts focus groups, explains that Trump supporters have consistently stated that they do not care about the indictments. Their views on the former president have remained steadfast, and the charges have either neutral or even positive effects on their support.
Chris Jackson, head of public polling at Ipsos, concurs with this assessment. While a majority of Republican voters in his surveys claimed that the indictments increased their support for Trump, Jackson believes it is not the charges themselves that are helping Trump’s candidacy but rather the media attention surrounding the indictments. Trump’s lead in polls has actually widened since his indictment, but Jackson attributes this to the weakening support for his opponents, particularly Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, rather than a strengthening of Trump’s position.
Overall, the counterfactual experiment conducted by Graham and his colleagues, as well as the interpretation of polling data by other experts, suggests that the indictments have not had a significant impact on Trump’s support among Republican voters. While it is necessary to consider how questions are framed in survey research, it is unlikely that the charges have substantially boosted or hurt Trump’s standing. It is important to dispel the false narrative that serious criminal charges can benefit a political candidate, as this perpetuates a pessimistic view of how the public thinks and reasons. There are already enough reasons to be pessimistic about politics, and we should not add to it by assuming people view indictments as favorable.
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