Yesterday proved to be a bustling day for our team. While the head of UK in a Changing Europe found themselves under the spotlight on the Question Time Brexit special and seemed a bit overwhelmed, our researchers back at the office were diligently analyzing data from a recent survey we conducted with Public First on leave voters. By combining the hard data with the television program, we were able to gain a comprehensive understanding of where leave voters stand, seven years after the referendum.
Unsurprisingly, the impact of Brexit on the economy was the first issue discussed last night. Our polling revealed that for leave voters who believe Brexit is going poorly or who have switched to supporting remain since 2016, the economic consequences of Brexit are a significant factor behind their doubts. Unlike Ben Habib, the former Brexit party MEP, the audience wasn’t willing to brush off Brexit’s impact as inconsequential. Habib’s suggestion to an audience member that his business was unaffected by Brexit was a memorable moment. While most leavers haven’t completely changed their opinion, it doesn’t mean they believe everything is going well. In our survey, 40% of leavers stated that the UK economy has significantly weakened after leaving the EU. However, like the audience in Clacton, they recognize the complexity of the situation and acknowledge the role played by factors such as Covid and the war in Ukraine.
The real interest emerged during the subsequent discussions. The studio audience was curious about whether politicians have maximized the UK’s newfound independence. Both leavers on the panel, Habib and Tory MP John Redwood, responded negatively. In this aspect, they are aligned with leave voters. In fact, 70% of leavers believe that Brexit could benefit the economy in some way, but we have yet to capitalize on those opportunities.
The importance of reclaiming the UK’s “independence” was evident among the audience. The passionate reaction to Alastair Campbell’s claim that “you were lied to” was particularly fascinating. The studio audience was quite representative of this sentiment. According to our survey, when asked about their main reason for voting for Brexit, 68% of leavers cited “having more control over our laws,” and 67% mentioned “stopping EU officials from having control over the UK.”
Equally apparent was the audience’s frustration regarding immigration. Although the official leave campaign promised to control immigration rather than reduce it, the anger towards the scale of immigration was palpable. However, most leavers aren’t interested in arguing over semantics. A majority (68%) believe that the current system isn’t strict enough and allows too many people to immigrate to the UK.
This brings us to the topic of sovereignty and how it has been utilized. One audience member last night expressed their frustration with being constantly accused of being deceived. The majority of leavers feel that they had all the information necessary to make an informed decision in 2016. However, they resent the fact that political leaders haven’t effectively utilized the sovereignty they voted for. In fact, 39% of them believe that politicians haven’t even made an effort to make Brexit work.
However, while frustrated, leavers didn’t expect immediate results. A quarter of them believe that it’s too soon to judge whether Brexit has been successful or not, while 61% remain optimistic that Brexit will ultimately turn out well or very well. The audience seemed to understand that waking up on June 24, 2016, wouldn’t instantly transform Britain. Instead, Brexit is viewed as an ongoing process that, despite previous mishaps by politicians, still holds promise for future successes.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise that many, including the majority of those in Clacton last night, still support their decision from 2016. In our survey, 72% of leave voters from 2016, with the knowledge they have now, would vote the same way again. Campbell’s support for rejoining the EU was met with much groaning and eye-rolling. For most leavers, even those who have regrets, another referendum is not the solution.
Question Time received criticism for featuring only leave voters in last night’s audience. However, the fact that the discussion provided ample food for thought indicates, at least in our opinion, that it was a wise choice.
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