Strained Warsaw-Berlin Relations Intensify Ahead of Polish Elections

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer directs the Center on the US and Europe at the Brookings Institution

The upcoming Polish elections are of utmost significance for Poland’s democratic future, European security, and Ukraine. These elections will also determine the state of the bilateral relationship between Poland and Germany, which is currently at its worst since 1989. While the ultraconservative Law and Justice (PiS) government shoulders most of the responsibility for the deteriorating relationship, Germany is not without fault.

Warsaw and Berlin are embroiled in two major disputes: the repercussions of the past and the future of the continent. On the European stage, unresolved historical grievances continue to plague relations between these neighbors.

In a recent development, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s government demanded €1.3tn in reparations from Germany. The atrocities committed by Nazi Germany against Poland, including industrial-scale murder and the persecution of millions, serve as a testament to the deep-seated animosity between the two countries. However, the legitimacy of Warsaw’s claim under international law is debatable. After Germany’s defeat, the principal Allies decreed that reparations claims from Eastern Europe would be directed to the Soviet Union, which would handle their allocation. While Poland received some compensation, it was also granted over 40,000 square miles of prewar eastern German territory. With the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR, reunified Germany and a newly sovereign Poland chose not to discuss reparations in pursuit of NATO and EU membership. Poland has also renounced its claims multiple times, most recently in 1970.

Aside from the historical perspective, there are other reasons behind the PiS government’s demand for compensation from Berlin. The EU, backed by Germany, is withholding €35 billion in Covid recovery funds until Poland addresses concerns about judicial independence.

Most importantly, PiS has been scapegoating Germany during its election campaign, spreading half-truths, lies, and vitriol to divert attention from its declining popularity and the polarization it has caused in Polish society. Jarosław Kaczyński, the de facto leader of PiS, has gone as far as labeling Donald Tusk, leader of the liberal right-of-center opposition party Civic Platform, a German agent, and accusing Berlin of seeking to create a “Fourth Reich.” PiS has gained control over various branches of the state, politicized the armed forces, attempted to ban abortion, and turned state-funded media into propaganda outlets. It has also targeted its opponents and civil society, violating basic EU rules.

Nevertheless, Poland does have valid concerns and grievances. The collective memory of war and near-destruction remains deeply ingrained in the national consciousness, while empathy from many Germans is lacking. Few in Germany appreciate the role played by the Solidarność workers in paving the way for Germany’s reunification, and criticisms about German dependence on Russian energy and low defense spending are met with condescension or accusations of fear-mongering. It is worth noting that Poland has provided refuge for nearly 1 million Ukrainian refugees and allocates 3% of its GDP to defense.

Given these circumstances, it is understandable that Poles question whether they can trust Germany, even as they acknowledge the turning point in Berlin caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many Poles view PiS’s demand for reparations as a cynical distraction tactic. However, less emphasis on legal arguments and more respect, recognition, and political generosity from Berlin would go a long way. Germany taking decisive action, such as permanently shutting down the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, would be a powerful gesture. Supporting Ukrainian success is also crucial.

In reality, the economies of Germany and Poland are deeply interconnected, and their societies share a closer relationship than stereotypes may suggest. Their common interests, particularly during times of war, outweigh their differences.

As for national stereotypes, Polish philosopher and historian Leszek Kołakowski noted that “in judging others, we involuntarily reveal our own patterns of perception, and thus our own vices and virtues.” This holds a lesson for both Warsaw and Berlin.