Malaysia and other countries in Southeast Asia are facing an increased risk of haze, drought, and water shortages due to the declaration of El Niño this year. Dry conditions are expected to persist for about a year starting from either July or August. The region experienced the impact of El Niño in 2015 and 2016, which caused a transboundary haze that led to canceled flights and classes, respiratory illnesses, and even deaths. Drought conditions also resulted in water rationing. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that El Niño will strengthen towards the end of 2023, with a 56 percent chance of it peaking as a strong event and an 84 percent likelihood of it being a moderate event.
Specific regions in Southeast Asia are expected to be affected by El Niño. Sumatra, Java Island, Sulawesi, and southern Borneo could experience drier conditions from September to November, while northern Borneo and the southern Philippines may experience dry spells from December to February. The extensive burning of forests in Sumatra and Kalimantan could lead to a transboundary haze when the southwest monsoon carries the particles towards Singapore and Malaysia.
The most severe example of an El Niño-induced drought and haze disaster in Southeast Asia occurred in 1997-1998. It lasted for three months, causing significant disruptions in air travel and businesses, as well as increased healthcare expenses. This El Niño event also resulted in droughts and flooding in other parts of the world, including Africa and North America, and one of Indonesia’s worst recorded droughts. The year 1998 ended up being one of the warmest years on record.
El Niño and La Niña weather patterns are the result of complex interactions between the atmosphere and the ocean, causing significant warming or cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These interactions disrupt air flows in the lower atmosphere and affect weather globally. The drier-than-normal conditions in Southeast Asia during El Niño events are influenced by two anticyclonic systems over the southern Indian Ocean and the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
The monsoon winds also play a role in shaping El Niño. In the summer months (June to August), southerly winds blow northward from Kalimantan and Sumatra, enhancing the southwesterly monsoon winds that can carry the smoke haze from these regions towards Singapore, Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak, Brunei, and Sabah. Autumn (September to November) brings reduced rainfall to Sumatra and Kalimantan, while conditions in Peninsular Malaysia return to normal. However, the dry weather in Borneo expands northwards, covering the entire island and leading to large-scale forest fires and haze.
Southeast Asia’s geographical location exposes the region to both El Niño in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean dipole occurrence. The dipole is a climate pattern characterized by temperature differences between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. When these two phenomena occur simultaneously, they can worsen droughts and haze, especially during the summer and autumn seasons.
Understanding the various phases and interactions of El Niño is crucial for predicting and managing its impacts on climate and associated socioeconomic sectors. To mitigate the effects of haze episodes, proactive measures, such as monitoring and controlling human activities that contribute to fire outbreaks, are essential for the well-being and sustainability of affected regions.
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