The deepening defense cooperation between South Korea and Japan is causing concern in China, as the US seeks to strengthen its alliances in East Asia amid increasing regional tensions.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore, Tokyo, Seoul, and the US reached an agreement to share real-time information on North Korean missile launches. This development, following a diplomatic breakthrough between Seoul and Tokyo, risks angering Beijing, which has discouraged closer economic and defense ties between South Korea, the US, and Japan.
Jaewoo Choo, head of the China Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Security think-tank, explains that China has always considered South Korea to be the weakest link in the US’s alliances in Asia due to its internal divisions and historic problems with Japan. However, the recent developments indicate that Seoul is moving further away from Beijing and closer to Tokyo and Washington, which is a concerning development for China.
Historically, South Korea has taken a conciliatory approach towards China, its largest trading partner and a significant security stakeholder in the Korean peninsula. However, relations have deteriorated since 2016, when Beijing imposed an unofficial economic blockade on South Korean consumer goods companies after the acquisition of the US-made THAAD missile defense system.
The “three nos” policy announced by South Korea’s left-wing president Moon Jae-in in 2017, in which Seoul promised not to add new THAAD batteries, not to participate in a US missile defense network, and not to join a trilateral military alliance with the US and Japan, only further emboldened China to exert pressure on South Korea.
Under conservative president Yoon Suk Yeol, who was elected last year, South Korea is now pushing back against China. Yoon’s administration does not consider itself bound by Moon’s “three nos” policy, and he has made statements regarding China’s attempts to change the status quo by force in relation to Taiwan.
China is particularly concerned about the growing diplomatic breakthrough between South Korea and Japan. Measures have been announced to ease a trade dispute stemming from wartime forced labor. Additionally, there have been discussions about Japan joining a new US-South Korea nuclear planning initiative. These developments indicate that defense cooperation involving the US, South Korea, and Japan is likely to intensify.
China has always understood South Korea’s close alliance with the US but has become worried as the focus of the alliance appears to shift to the wider region. China’s aggressive response to the THAAD deployment in 2016 damaged their relationship with South Korea, and they are now limited in their options for pressuring Seoul.
Chinese officials have reportedly warned South Korea that high-level diplomatic exchanges would be suspended and cooperation on North Korea policy would be withdrawn if Seoul crossed Beijing’s red lines on Taiwan and military coordination with Tokyo and Washington. However, South Korean media reports suggest that Beijing will use subtler means to exert pressure, as seen in recent disruptions to South Korean tech giant Naver’s services in China.
The tensions between Beijing and Seoul are likely to worsen the diplomatic impasse over the nuclear threat from North Korea. China has repeatedly blocked UN Security Council resolutions condemning Pyongyang’s ballistic missile program, and new developments could lead to a worrisome cycle of escalation.
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