Shortly before 7 p.m. on Tuesday, an incident occurred in Gaza that has sparked a heated debate. Rockets were launched into the sky, with one veering off course and breaking up before crashing down. Not long after, a large explosion occurred in the same vicinity, near Gaza’s al-Ahli Arab Hospital. The question of who is responsible for this explosion has become a point of contention between the Israeli government and Palestinian militants, further exacerbating tensions in their ongoing conflict.
The Associated Press (AP) has analyzed multiple videos, satellite imagery, and photos to determine the cause of the explosion. Based on their assessment, the rocket that broke up in the air originated from Palestinian territory, and a portion of that rocket most likely caused the hospital explosion when it crashed onto the ground. While there is no definitive proof linking the rocket break-up and the hospital explosion due to a lack of forensic evidence and the challenges of collecting such evidence during a war, AP’s analysis is supported by experts in open-source intelligence, geolocation, and rocketry.
To reach their conclusion, AP reviewed various videos from news broadcasts, security cameras, and social media posts. They matched the locations featured in these videos to satellite imagery and photos taken before the explosion occurred. One crucial video, captured by Al Jazeera, showed a group of rockets being fired from the ground in Gaza. One of these rockets diverged from the others and changed its course back towards Gaza City. The rocket appeared to fragment in the sky, with a piece falling to the ground and another exploding in a dazzling display. Shortly after, a small explosion occurred in the distance, followed by a larger blast closer to the camera. This video, combined with other footage, enabled AP to confirm that the larger explosion aligned with the direction of the hospital.
Another video, obtained by AP from a camera inside Israel, captured a barrage of rockets being launched from Gaza before a significant explosion lit up the Palestinian side of the border. This footage confirmed that the rocket launches and explosion were directed towards Gaza City. A third video captured by Israeli news station Channel 12, from an upper-floor camera in Netivot, a town southeast of Gaza City, also showed the rocket barrage and the subsequent explosion timing.
After the hospital explosion, the al-Qassam Brigades, a military wing of Hamas, claimed responsibility for rocket strikes in Ashdod, an Israeli coastal city, and Tel Aviv. Islamic Jihad, another militant group collaborating with Hamas, also announced a rocket strike on Tel Aviv. Israel’s military, backed by U.S. intelligence and President Joe Biden, denied involvement in the hospital explosion, attributing it to an errant rocket fired from within Gaza by Islamic Jihad. Hamas dismissed Israel’s narrative as fabricated, accusing them of punishing the hospital for not evacuating following a prior warning.
To support AP’s findings, they consulted several experts who concurred that the likeliest scenario involved a rocket from Gaza that veered off course and disintegrated before causing the explosion. The experts analyzed landmarks visible in the videos, confirming that the rockets were launched from within Gaza. While the homemade rockets used by militants in Gaza can still be deadly, they have smaller warheads compared to those used by major militaries. These rockets are often constructed using limited resources found within Gaza, contributing to a higher failure rate.
Some questions surrounding the incident focus on the three-second gap between the rocket’s breakup in the sky and the hospital explosion on the ground. Experts ponder whether these two events are linked, especially since the videos analyzed by AP do not show any visible trace of light following the rocket to the ground. Outside experts have been consulted to provide further insights into these unanswered questions.
