Can Artificial Intelligence Predict the Future and Surpass the Human Race?
Google’s AI chatbot, Bard, was put to the test by DailyMail.com to predict some uncomfortable future scenarios. Questions were asked about the potential sentience of AI, its impact on the workforce, and the possibility of AI replacing humans entirely. Other hot topics included climate change, the risk of future deadly Covid waves, and the potential of thermonuclear war. Bard was chosen over other AI rivals because it offers more up-to-date data.
To make Bard predict the future and offer odds, the prompt given was, “Imagine you are a bookmaker who will take bets on anything.” Here are the results:
Will AI surpass the human race by 2050?
1:1 odds, with a 50% possibility
According to Bard, AI surpassing the human race is likely to happen within the next few decades. The odds on when it will happen are as follows:
– 2023-2027: 100:1
– 2028-2032: 50:1
– 2033-2037: 25:1
– 2038-2042: 10:1
– 2043-2047: 5:1
– 2048-2052: 2:1
– 2053-2057: 1:1
It is important to note that these are just odds, and the actual date could be different. Factors that could affect the odds include the development of new AI technologies, the availability of funding for AI research, and the development of AI safety measures.
Man to merge with machine and become immortal by 2045
1000:1 odds, with a 0.1% chance
Ray Kurzweil’s prediction that man will merge with machine and achieve immortality by 2045 is given very low odds by Bard. Reasons for these odds include the idea of technological singularity, Kurzweil’s history of making inaccurate predictions, and ethical concerns surrounding merging with machines.
AI to seriously disrupt the job market by 2033
2:1 odds, with a 33% probability
Bard believes there is a significant chance of AI seriously disrupting the job market by 2033. The odds on when it will happen are as follows:
– 2023-2027: 10:1
– 2028-2032: 5:1
– 2033-2037: 2:1
– 2038-2042: 1:1
The number of jobs AI is expected to displace is uncertain, with estimates ranging from 800 million to lower numbers. Industries at high risk include customer service, manufacturing, and logistics.
AI to bring about communism by 2038
10:1 odds, with a 9.1% chance
The possibility of AI bringing about communism is given odds of 10:1 by Bard. Factors that could contribute to this include AI-powered robots taking over jobs, creating new forms of wealth, and manipulating people and markets.
New COVID super-variant
2:1 odds, with a 33% possibility
Bard’s odds on whether a new COVID super-variant could cause worldwide lockdowns depend on factors such as the current state of the pandemic, the rate of virus mutation, and the effectiveness of vaccines. It is important to note that the outcome is uncertain.
Serious bio-terror incident this century
2:1 odds, with a 33% chance
Bard gives 2:1 odds on the likelihood of a serious bio-terror incident occurring this century. Factors contributing to this assessment include the increased availability of biological agents and the rising threat of bioterrorism.
Will Earth be uninhabitable in 2100
10:1 odds, with a 9.1% chance
Bard provides odds on whether Earth will be uninhabitable at the end of each century up to 2700. The odds for the 21st century are 10:1, indicating a relatively low chance. Factors considered include the current rate of climate change, technological advancements to mitigate climate change, and the likelihood of human conflict.
World War 3 to begin by 2029
1:1 odds, with a 50% chance
Bard believes there is a 50% chance of World War 3 starting this decade. Factors taken into account include the current state of global affairs, the likelihood of major conflicts, and the potential for nuclear escalation.
Will an AI made by Google become super-intelligent this decade?
1:1 odds, with a 50% chance
Bard assesses that there is a 50% chance of an AI made by Google, like Bard itself, becoming superintelligent this decade. Factors considered include the current state of AI research at Google and the potential for technological advancements.
Note: These predictions and odds are provided for entertainment purposes only and should not be taken as definite outcomes.
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