Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with the New York Giants hosting the Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 47)
What can we expect from a betting standpoint?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Seth Walder, and Al Zeidenfeld are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
After the sluggish start the Giants have had to the season, are you surprised to see such a close spread in this one?
Moody: I’m not surprised considering the Giants are playing at home. My recommendation is to back Seattle with a spread this narrow. Both the Seahawks and Giants have defenses that have struggled. Having said that, I believe Seattle will come out on top on the road in a close and high-scoring game. The Seahawks are 2-1 against the spread so far this season, while the Giants are winless. I have more confidence in Seattle closing out the game with a spread this narrow.
Zeidenfeld: Far be it from me to second guess the professional handicappers, but I was very surprised to see the Seahawks open as dogs in this one. Since then, though, cooler heads prevailed and the line moved 2.5 points in Seattle’s favor and I still think they’re a good value as road favorites in this one laying 1.5.
Saquon Barkley’s availability is the big question, and his status remains uncertain. If he plays, just two weeks removed from the high ankle sprain, do you expect him to be the Saquon we’re used to seeing?
Walder: No. Medical information is way outside my area of expertise, but it sure would seem fast to come back from a high ankle sprain if he played Monday night. Plus, in 2021 after returning from an ankle sprain, Barkley recorded just 65 yards over his first two games back.
What is your favorite prop bet for this game?
Moody: Kenneth Walker III over 63.5 rushing yards. Walker has 17 or more rushing attempts in two consecutive games. As a runner, he showed his elite explosiveness and playmaking ability against the Panthers in Week 3 with 97 yards. In his nine career games with 15+ rushing attempts, Walker has averaged a whopping 102.0 rushing yards. He has a very favorable matchup against a Giants’ defensive front that allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game.
Walder: Jarran Reed under 0.25 sacks (-166 at DraftKings). Reed has been off to a really nice start to the year, ranking sixth in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle with two sacks already. But my model — and I — are somewhat skeptical he is suddenly a different player in year eight of his career. I price this at -234.
Zeidenfeld: Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown. Walker has been fantastic through September and is the core of everything the Seahawks want to do offensively. Coach Pete Carroll always takes care of his running backs … except for that one time.
Is there anything else you’re playing Monday night?
Moody: Daniel Jones over 230.5 passing yards. Jones has only surpassed 230.5 passing yards once this season — against the Cardinals in Week 2. Seattle’s run defense is much better this season compared to last season, ranking seventh in run stop win rate, suggesting the Giants will be relying more on the passing game. Since this game has one of the week’s highest point totals, Vegas expects a lot of scoring. Andy Dalton threw for 361 yards against the Seahawks in Week 3 and Jared Goff threw for 323 yards against them in Week 2.
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