Scientists have issued a warning that Britain’s record-breaking summer in 2022, which included the hottest day in UK history, is an indication of what the future holds for the country’s climate. They emphasize the urgent need to control greenhouse gas emissions to prevent more extreme heat events from occurring. Last year saw temperatures reach 104°F (40°C) for the first time ever, with a high of 104.5°F (40.3°C) in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. Additionally, it was the hottest year ever recorded in the UK since 1884, surpassing the Central England Temperature record dating back to 1659.
The State Of The UK Climate 2022 report reveals several key findings. Firstly, 2022 was the warmest year on record in the UK, with temperatures being 0.9°C above the 1991-2020 average. The highest temperature ever recorded in Britain, 40.3°C, was reached on July 19 in Coningsby, Lincolnshire. Winter, spring, summer, and autumn of 2022 all ranked among the top 10 warmest seasons since 1884. Moreover, all of the top 10 warmest years in the UK have occurred in the 21st century, indicating a clear trend towards increasing temperatures. The last decade (2013-2022) was the warmest 10-year period on record since 1659, with temperatures 0.3°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average and 1.1°C warmer than 1961-1990. Sea surface temperatures in 2022 were also the warmest since 1870.
These milestones reflect the trajectory of the UK’s climate in the coming decades, according to the Met Office. As long as greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked, the Earth will continue to warm. The report’s lead author, Mike Kendon, describes the 40°C temperature mark as a significant moment in climate history. While extreme temperatures like these remain rare, they are becoming more frequent due to climate change. Kendon explains that climate change increases the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of heatwaves.
Looking to the future, Professor Liz Bentley, CEO of the Royal Meteorological Society, predicts hotter and drier summers based on climate projections. She suggests that 2022 serves as a warning for what’s to come as the UK’s climate continues to change.
The report also highlights a trend of rising temperatures above 36°C. Between 1961-1990, the highest recorded temperature was 31.3°C, compared to 33.5°C between 1991-2020, 35.7°C between 2013-2022, and 40.3°C in 2022. These rising temperatures pose significant challenges for the UK’s ecosystems and wildlife.
The report incorporates data from Nature’s Calendar, a citizen science project that tracks how plants and animals respond to changing seasons. It reveals that 2022 experienced an early spring and a late autumn due to a mild February and warm October. Leaves remained on trees for 16 days longer than the average from 1999-2021, and some plants and insects emerged earlier than usual.
While 2022 was relatively dry, the overall climate trend shows an increase in rainfall in the UK. Five out of the ten wettest years since 1836 have occurred in the 21st century, with record-breaking rainfall in February, April, June, November, and December after 2009.
The report also addresses rising sea levels, which have increased by around 18.5cm since the 1900s, with approximately 11.4cm of that rise occurring in the past 30 years. The melting ice sheets in the polar regions contribute to this rise. Dr. Svetlana Jevrejeva, the report’s author, warns that sea levels will continue to rise for the next few hundred years, although the rate of rise depends on the actions taken to mitigate climate change.
The report comes at a crucial time when environmental policies in the UK are being debated. The results of a by-election have led to discussions of potentially weakening these policies. However, Dr. Jevrejeva emphasizes that regardless of the path chosen, sea levels will continue to rise over the next few centuries, given the current state of the climate.
The Paris Agreement, an international agreement aimed at limiting climate change, becomes increasingly important as research suggests that a significant portion of the world could experience drier conditions if global warming exceeds 1.5°C. The agreement outlines goals to reduce carbon emissions and limit temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
In summary, the State Of The UK Climate 2022 report serves as an alarming wake-up call. It highlights the ongoing trend of rising temperatures and their impact on the UK’s climate, ecosystems, and sea levels. Urgent action is needed to curb greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.
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