Europe is currently facing a deadly heatwave known as Cerberus, which has prompted cities like Rome, Bologna, and Florence to issue red alert warnings due to unbearable temperatures. This heatwave is expected to intensify further, with temperatures surpassing 40C in Spain, France, Greece, Croatia, and Turkey, and potentially reaching a staggering 48.8C in Italy. Experts attribute this scorching weather to three main factors – El Niño, a stationary high-pressure system, and climate change. However, the UK is not experiencing the same high temperatures due to the placement of the high-pressure system, which does not cover the UK and provides stable atmospheric conditions for enhanced warming elsewhere.
Dr Melissa Lazenby, a lecturer in Climate Change at the University of Sussex, explains that Europe is not directly affected by El Niño events, suggesting that the high-pressure system and climate change are the primary contributors to this heatwave. The heatwave is currently affecting southern Europe and north-west Africa, with cities like Athens and Madrid reaching temperatures above 30C. Italy has also issued red alerts for ten major cities, warning about intense heat. Sicily and Sardinia are expected to face temperatures as high as 48.8C. Tragically, this heatwave has already resulted in fatalities, emphasizing the severity of the situation.
According to experts, the heatwave is primarily driven by a stationary high-pressure system, also known as an anticyclone. Dr Leslie Mabon, a Lecturer in Environmental Systems at The Open University, emphasizes that climate change is a critical driver behind this heatwave. He states that carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels play a significant role in this warming trend and warns that further reductions in emissions are necessary to prevent future extreme heatwaves.
Although a large Saharan dust cloud is heading towards southern Europe, experts, including Dr Chloe Brimicombe from the University of Graz, believe that it is unlikely to contribute to the heatwave. Instead, it presents a potential health challenge, increasing dust content and pollution. The UK’s cooler temperatures compared to the rest of Europe can be attributed to the placement of the high-pressure system, which does not cover the UK and results in different wind patterns that prevent conducive heatwave conditions.
While this heatwave is being dubbed Cerberus, named after the three-headed monster in Dante’s inferno, experts emphasize that a full attribution study is required to determine all the drivers and their impact on this event. However, El Niño, the high-pressure system, and climate change have proven to be significant factors in creating this extreme heatwave. Future forecasts suggest that El Niño is likely to persist, indicating the possibility of prolonged warmer temperatures. It is crucial to address climate change and reduce fossil fuel emissions to mitigate the likelihood of recurring extreme heatwaves.
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