The rapid intensification of Hurricane Otis before it hit southern Mexico is a clear indication of the human-caused climate crisis, say scientists. This phenomenon is becoming increasingly common and can catch coastal communities off guard, leaving little time for preparation.
Hurricane Otis underwent one of the fastest intensifications ever observed, with its maximum windspeed increasing by 115 mph in just 24 hours. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015, with a 120-mph increase in the same timeframe, surpassed Otis’ rapid intensification record in the East Pacific.
Rapid intensification refers to the rapid strengthening of a storm’s winds in a short period of time. Scientists define it as a minimum increase of 35 mph in 24 hours, usually requiring significant ocean heat. The National Hurricane Center stated that Otis intensified so quickly on Tuesday that it underwent “explosive intensification.”
Otis took advantage of a warm patch of ocean, approximately 88 degrees Fahrenheit, which provided ample fuel for a monstrous storm, according to Brian McNoldy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that over 90% of global warming in the past 50 years has occurred in the oceans. Additionally, an El Niño event is occurring in the Pacific this year, further elevating ocean temperatures.
McNoldy mentioned that Otis’ strengthening was extremely unusual and would have been remarkable even if it had happened over the open ocean rather than right before landfall.
Rapid intensification, a phenomenon once rare, is now becoming more frequent due to human-caused climate change, according to Suzana Camargo, a hurricane expert and professor at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
“Intense storms making landfall on Mexico’s eastern Pacific side are very rare,” Camargo told CNN.
According to CNN’s analysis of NOAA data, only one hurricane, Category 1 Hurricane Max in 2017, has made landfall within 50 miles of Acapulco.
“However, in an El Niño year, which makes the eastern north Pacific Ocean more active than usual, combined with anthropogenic climate change, intensification events like Otis become more likely,” Camargo explained.
The concerning trend of rapid intensification has also been observed in the Atlantic Ocean.
A recent study revealed that Atlantic hurricanes are now more than twice as likely to strengthen from a weak Category 1 storm to a powerful Category 3 in just 24 hours compared to the period between 1970 and 1990.
Another study conducted in 2019 found a “highly unusual” increase in rapid intensification of Atlantic hurricanes from the 1980s to the early 2000s. The report attributed this trend solely to human-caused climate change. Furthermore, scientists discovered that the strongest storms were experiencing significant intensification, making the most life-threatening hurricanes even more dangerous.
Rapid intensification has historically been challenging to predict, but with rising ocean temperatures due to climate change, scientists anticipate it will occur more frequently.
“All of this confirms our expectations,” Camargo concluded.
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