There is no pleasure quite like schadenfreude. The recent events surrounding the Prigozhin putsch in Ukraine have provided much entertainment for friends and admirers of Ukraine who are opposed to Russian tyranny. While it is still unclear what exactly happened, many theories have been floating about, ranging from Prigozhin acting alone out of anger, to acting under the influence of shadowy figures, or even staging a theatrical performance for Putin’s benefit. Regardless, it is important to consider the implications of this drama on the war in Ukraine and the security of Europe and the world.
Instead of relying on shreds of evidence and speculations, it is more productive to focus on the three underlying logics that will continue to drive the war. Firstly, Russian imperialism plays a significant role as it seeks to subjugate Ukraine, not only out of national ambition, but also due to a genuine belief amongst Putin and his cronies that Ukraine is a subordinate part of Russia. This belief is often fueled by historical falsehoods and myths, which have inspired Putin’s attack on Ukraine.
Secondly, the war in Ukraine is subject to the same logic as any other war, as described by Carl von Clausewitz. Factors such as tactical competence, training, morale, operational-level design, and logistics all shape the outcomes on the battlefield. These tangible elements of war cannot be overlooked when analyzing the conflict.
The third and currently dominant logic is that of mafia politics. To understand this dynamic, one can turn to Mario Puzo’s The Godfather for guidance. Putin, like the fictional Don Corleone, must constantly navigate a treacherous environment filled with betrayals, alliances, and plots to maintain power. The recent events surrounding Prigozhin’s putsch only add to the uncertainty and paranoia within the Kremlin.
For now, the mafia logic takes precedence over other factors. Putin and his leadership will prioritize survival over ideology or sound strategy. The impact on the battlefield is likely to be significant, as the revelation of Prigozhin’s actions will shake the trust and confidence of Russian military leaders. Defending against the Ukrainian offensive becomes more challenging for officers who are concerned about being targeted as traitors.
Ultimately, the Prigozhin putsch has shattered the illusions surrounding Putin’s control and bravery. It also highlights the complexity of the war in Ukraine and the difficulty of finding a middle ground solution. We are mere spectators to a chaotic tragedy unfolding before us, but one that is not without its moments of dark comedy.
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