The recent mercenary rebellion in Russia was described as a minor disturbance by the foreign minister, emphasizing that it did not weaken President Vladimir V. Putin’s hold on power. Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov expressed confidence that Russia would emerge stronger and more resilient after the brief mutiny led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin and his Wagner group troops. Lavrov dismissed the significance of the rebellion, which advanced an armored column to within 125 miles of Moscow before retreating.
Lavrov stated that if anyone in the West doubted Russia’s stability, it was their problem. He cautioned Western nations supporting Ukraine against believing that the Russian government had faltered. Despite the Kremlin’s assertion that the uprising lacked support and the nation stood firmly behind Putin, there is ongoing cleanup of the aftermath.
The fate of two key individuals, Mr. Prigozhin and Gen. Sergei Surovikin, remains uncertain. Since last weekend, neither has been heard from publicly, and their whereabouts and level of freedom are unknown. Belarus, a close ally of Putin, announced that Prigozhin had sought exile there, but there is no independent confirmation of this. It appears that Russian authorities have agreed not to prosecute Prigozhin or his troops in exchange for his decision to stand down without a major armed clash.
According to U.S. officials, General Surovikin, who previously commanded Russian air forces and the war effort in Ukraine, had prior knowledge of the mutiny and seems to have been detained. However, the Russian government has declined to comment on this matter. Speculation about his arrest has been circulating among Russian bloggers, with conflicting reports.
The C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, personally contacted the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service to assure the Kremlin that the United States had no involvement in the rebellion. The Biden administration has made it clear to Russian officials that the uprising is regarded as an internal matter. Lavrov has publicly accepted these explanations.
Russia’s state media regulator has blocked a news website controlled by Prigozhin, and other outlets have reportedly been blocked as well. Russian security services have conducted raids on other Prigozhin-owned properties. Putin admitted this week that Kremlin contracts had supported the Wagner private army and pledged an investigation into these contracts to expose corruption and profiteering.
This week, the Kremlin has taken measures to assume control over Wagner mercenary forces in various countries, including Syria and the Central African Republic. These forces have been instrumental in supporting repressive governments and securing lucrative concessions in natural resources. Russian diplomats have moved quickly to reassure their allies of continued Wagner support.
Wagner, which supported the military junta in Mali, influenced the departure of a United Nations peacekeeping force in the country to advance its own interests. The U.N. Security Council voted on Friday to withdraw the peacekeepers after the junta requested their immediate departure.
The future of Wagner troops currently fighting in Ukraine is uncertain. They have been ordered to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by Saturday to be integrated into the regular Russian military. This decision marks the end of Wagner as an independent force in Ukraine and weakens Prigozhin’s political influence. Prigozhin claimed that his rebellion aimed to confront military leaders rather than Putin.
President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus offered to accommodate Wagner fighters who refuse to join the Russian military, providing them with an abandoned military base. However, it remains unknown how many will accept this offer. Satellite imagery from Thursday and Friday reveals the recent construction of over 250 tents, capable of housing thousands of troops, at the unused base. As of now, there is no indication of a significant troop presence.
The relocation of Wagner fighters to Belarus could pose a new threat to Ukraine along its northern border, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to order strengthened defenses in that region.
Contributors to this report include Elian Peltier, Valerie Hopkins, Victoria Kim, Julian E. Barnes, Christoph Koettl, Riley Mellen, Dmitriy Khavin, and Gabriela Sá Pessoa.
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