In a recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll, an early prediction suggests that if the election were held today, Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump by 7 percentage points, even when considering the presence of Kennedy in the race.
The survey indicates that Biden would secure 44% of the vote, while Trump would receive 37%. Kennedy would gather 16% of the vote, leaving 3% of voters undecided at this point.
Interestingly, Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stance seems to attract conservative voters, but in turn, he appears to draw more support away from Trump than Biden.
The poll reveals that with Kennedy on the ballot, Biden loses 5 percentage points among Democrats, while Trump loses 10 points among Republicans.
It’s worth noting that Kennedy has received significant attention from conservative outlets, including Fox News, despite being disapproved of by his own family. However, come November 2024, he may surprisingly become a favorite among Democrats.
Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, commented on the impact of a third-party candidate: “Although it’s always tricky to assess the impact of a third-party candidate, right now Kennedy alters the equation in Biden’s favor. What this does speak to, however, is that about one in six voters are looking for another option, especially independents.”
The survey, conducted on October 11th among 1,313 American adults, indicates that Biden holds a 3 percentage point lead over Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
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