Why Military Intervention in Mexico is a Dangerous Idea
Today’s Republican Party has shifted towards a policy of isolationism or, more positively, realism and restraint when it comes to foreign affairs. While they decry “endless wars,” particularly in the Middle East, Republicans have surprisingly become more hawkish when it comes to America’s southern neighbor, Mexico. Party leaders, including members of Congress and presidential candidates, now advocate for direct U.S. military intervention in Mexico to combat drug cartels that are flooding America with deadly fentanyl.
The irony of these calls for military intervention is hard to ignore. Many of these Republicans turned against the disastrous War on Terror, which devasted countries and caused countless deaths and refugees. Yet, they now echo the arguments and tools of that very war. The strategic stupidity of a potential military intervention in Mexico cannot be overstated. It could create a failed state on the U.S. border, causing far more death and destruction than any drug.
President Donald Trump played a significant role in cultivating this new jingoism. From his infamous verbal attack against Mexican migrants during his presidential campaign to musing about shooting missiles at Mexican fentanyl labs while in office, Trump sowed the seeds for this aggressive stance. Republican politicians, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, have pledged to launch Special Operations raids and airstrikes in Mexico to combat the cartels.
If you think this saber-rattling is merely primary-season bluster, think again. Pundits and voters are rallying behind these politicians. A recent poll found that as many GOP voters now consider Mexico an enemy instead of an ally. The language used to discuss Mexico echoes the rhetoric used in the War on Terror, inflating threats and promising swift military victories. It is important to remember the disastrous consequences of that war and the moral culpability the U.S. would have for any potential war in Mexico.
The War on Terror included a failed counter-drug campaign in Afghanistan, with U.S. troops futilely attempting to interrupt opium-poppy cultivation. U.S. planes bombed drug labs, yet opium production skyrocketed. Mexico would pose an even greater risk. Any unilateral U.S. military action in Mexico could lead to the collapse of a neighboring country and unleash civil war and a humanitarian crisis. American cities near the border would become potential targets for retaliatory terrorist attacks by the cartels. Additionally, the U.S. lacks the major asset it had in the War on Terror: partners. No other country would be willing to participate in an American attack on Mexico, and Mexican President López Obrador has publicly rejected U.S. military intervention.
If America has learned anything from its post-9/11 conflicts, it is that war brings unintended consequences. Military intervention in a country battling an insurgency typically exacerbates violence rather than quelling it. Cartel members would hide among civilians and infiltrate Mexico’s compromised security forces. American troops would be vulnerable to corruption and infiltration, especially if the intervention lasted longer than expected.
A counter-cartel campaign would likely devolve into a manhunt for narco kingpins and inadvertently create folk heroes out of brutal drug traffickers. It could turn some of the worst men on Earth into symbols of resistance to U.S. imperialism. A U.S.-Mexico conflict could become an opportunity for other American enemies to exploit the situation for their gain.
Military intervention in Mexico would be a grave mistake. Instead of repeating the disastrous mistakes of the War on Terror, Republicans should seek alternative strategies to combat drug cartels. War should never be the first choice when dealing with complex international problems.
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