According to a report released by the Pew Research Center on Wednesday, even though Democrats were able to hold off a widely anticipated red wave in the 2022 midterm elections, Republican turnout was actually stronger. The Republican Party was successful in energizing key demographic groups, including women, Latinos, and rural voters.
This report serves as a warning for Democrats as they prepare for the 2024 presidential election, with early polls indicating a possible rematch between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump. While Democrats maintained control of the Senate, only narrowly lost the House, and held onto all but one of their governor’s mansions, the Pew data shows that a larger percentage of voters who supported Trump in 2020 cast their ballots in November compared to those who supported Biden. Democrats experienced a significant loss of voters who had previously voted in past elections but chose to sit out the 2022 midterms.
Despite the Democratic party’s emphasis on persuading Republican voters to switch their allegiance in the Trump era, the Pew research found that the majority of voters remained loyal to the same party throughout the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections. Only a small percentage, about 6 percent of voters, cast their ballots for multiple parties across these three elections, and these voters were more likely to be Democrats flipping to Republican candidates rather than the other way around.
Hannah Hartig, one of the authors of the Pew report, highlighted the eternal debate among political analysts regarding what factors contribute more to the election outcome: persuading voters to switch their allegiance or increasing the turnout of core party loyalists. The voters who participated in the 2018 election but skipped the 2022 midterms had favored Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin in the previous election. Democrats attempted to energize these voters by linking other Republicans to Trump and inflating his profile. However, Pew’s analysis suggests that what likely drove Democrats to the polls was not solely Biden’s actions but rather a reaction to the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Dan Sena, a former executive director of House Democrats’ campaign arm, believes that the key to the 2024 election lies in persuading independent and moderate Republican voters who dislike both Biden and Trump to support Democrats. Sena suggests that abortion rights are the most likely issue to sway these voters.
Pew’s analysis is based on a panel of over 7,000 Americans whose attitudes and voting behavior have been tracked through multiple election cycles. The group cross-referenced voter information with state voting rolls to verify actual participation in the 2022 elections, providing a comprehensive overview of the electorate.
While Republicans enjoyed a turnout advantage in 2022, they fell short of expectations and did not match the Democrats’ turnout advantage in the 2018 midterm elections. Historically, midterm voters tend to be older and whiter than those in presidential election years, which typically benefits Republicans. The 2018 midterms deviated from this trend with increased turnout across all age groups, particularly among young people. However, the 2022 electorate returned to the typical pattern.
Much of the narrative surrounding the 2022 election focused on Democratic energy following the Supreme Court’s abortion decision. While this played a significant role in key races, Democrats appeared to have lost ground with a crucial group: women. In the 2018 election cycle, Democrats had an 18 percentage point advantage among women due to increased activism, including events like the Women’s March. However, this advantage shrunk to just three points in 2022. The decline for Democrats was primarily driven by higher voter turnout among Republican women rather than women switching their party allegiance.
Overall, Hispanic voters continued to support Democrats, although by a smaller margin compared to four years prior. In 2018, Democrats won 72 percent of Hispanic voters, but this dropped to only 60 percent in 2022. This decline began in 2020 when Democrats also won about 60 percent of Hispanic voters. Republicans also made gains with rural voters, not only through increased turnout but also by attracting rural voters who had previously voted for Democrats.
In conclusion, while Republicans demonstrated strong turnout in the 2022 midterm elections and energized key demographic groups, Democrats face challenges ahead of the 2024 presidential election. The Pew report highlights the importance of appealing to independent and moderate Republican voters and suggests that abortion rights may play a significant role in swaying these voters. The analysis also emphasizes the historical patterns of midterm elections and their demographic characteristics. Additionally, it underscores the decreasing advantage Democrats have among women and Hispanic voters.
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