The Biden administration and Venezuela are reportedly engaged in discussions to exchange sanctions relief for a free and fair election in Venezuela in 2024, according to a report by Bloomberg. The concern is that the upcoming election will mirror the 2020 parliamentary election, which was marked by low participation and an uneven playing field.
The talks involve high-ranking officials from both sides, including Venezuelan National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez. Earlier this year, Rodríguez met with Juan González, the National Security Council’s top Western Hemisphere official, in Qatar to establish communication channels between the two governments.
While the White House has not confirmed the talks, officials have stated that sanctions relief is a possibility, contingent on concrete actions from Venezuela to restore democracy and hold free and fair elections. Currently, the ball is in President Nicolás Maduro’s court, as Venezuela has not taken the necessary steps for sanctions relief.
Various external factors, such as oil prices, the presence of U.S. detainees in Venezuela, and pressure from Congress, may incentivize the Biden administration to negotiate. However, Professor Michael McCarthy of George Washington University’s Elliott School for International Affairs emphasizes the importance of follow-through and maintaining trust once initial concessions are made.
Since assuming power in 2013, Maduro has followed in the footsteps of former President Hugo Chávez to consolidate the ruling party’s control over Venezuela’s democratic institutions. His last reelection in 2018 was boycotted by the opposition.
In the upcoming 2024 cycle, Maduro has threatened to hold elections earlier than planned, significantly reducing the opposition’s preparation time. The Venezuelan opposition has historically been divided, providing little resistance to the ruling socialist party. However, for 2024, the opposition has agreed on an October 22 primary election to select a unity candidate.
One notable opposition candidate in this cycle is María Corina Machado, a former lawmaker whose presidential bid has gained momentum domestically and internationally. Her candidacy has significantly influenced the political landscape.
Venezuelan officials have a history of disqualifying opposition candidates who gain political traction, including Machado and longtime opposition leader Henrique Capriles. These arbitrary disqualifications have garnered criticism from the international community, including Colombian President Gustavo Petro. However, it is unlikely that Maduro will face real pressure or incentives unless they come from the United States.
The situation between the U.S. and Venezuela is a bilateral matter, with the U.S. holding more influence than the Latin American left, according to Professor McCarthy. The Biden administration has invested significantly in its policy pivot attempt, aiming to secure sanctions relief for improved electoral conditions.
In conclusion, the talks between the Biden administration and Venezuela regarding sanctions relief and a free election reflect the ongoing efforts to restore democracy and fairness in Venezuela’s political landscape.
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