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David Purdum, an ESPN Staff Writer, joined ESPN in 2014 and has been covering the gambling industry since 2008. In case you missed it, Atlanta Falcons receiver Drake London fell short of his receiving yards prop against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Despite being the most heavily bet player prop at DraftKings, London finished with 0 yards on 0 receptions, with only one target. This negatively impacted Bryce Young and the Panthers, resulting in their 24-10 loss as 3.5-point underdogs. Interestingly, quarterbacks picked No. 1 overall are now 1-14 against the spread in their first career starts, according to ESPN Stats and Information.
Perhaps your Sunday betting experience was marred by a disappointing bet on the New York Giants, the 3-point home underdogs who suffered a humiliating 40-0 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys after falling behind 26-0 at halftime. I, too, made a bet on the Giants and share your frustration.
But let’s not dwell on our worst bets of the weekend. Instead, let’s take a look at the astonishing actions of some bettors in Circa Survivor, a high-stakes NFL survivor pool with a $9.2 million prize. Surprisingly, 31 entries failed to submit their pick for Week 1, even though they paid $1,000 each to enter. These entries now hold the same value as the 68 contestants who chose the Kansas City Chiefs over the Detroit Lions in the season opener.
As we embark on this new season, it’s clear that some of us, including myself, have room for improvement in our betting strategies. Hopefully, we’ll hit our stride just in time to wager on the over/under of the National Anthem’s length at the Super Bowl and bolster our bankroll. In the meantime, let’s dive into this week’s edition of Notable Bets.
In the NFL, road teams have started the season strong, covering the spread in 12 out of 15 games entering Monday. If the favored Bills cover the 2-point spread against the Jets, road teams will have an impressive 13-3 ATS record, which is the second-highest cover percentage by road teams in a single week in the last 25 years, according to ESPN Stats and Information. This milestone was previously achieved in Week 16 of 2018, with a record of 13-2-1.
PointsBet reported one-sided action in live betting when the Dallas Cowboys led the Giants 26-0 in the second quarter. Many bettors placed their bets on the Giants +18, but unfortunately, they did not come out as winners.
Fanatics, known for its merchandise, made its debut as a bookmaker on Sunday. The company’s new retail sportsbook at FedEx Field, where the Washington Commanders hosted the Arizona Cardinals, saw “nice crowds” on its first day of operation. This was made possible by a change in NFL policy, allowing sportsbooks inside stadiums on game days. Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk for Fanatics, revealed that the betting action heavily favored the Commanders, with approximately 98% of bets placed on them to beat the Cardinals. The Commanders, despite trailing for three quarters, emerged victorious with a 20-16 win.
Contrary to public opinion, favorites did not always prevail. The Green Bay Packers, led by coach Matt LaFleur, covered the spread for the ninth consecutive time against the Chicago Bears, surprising many with their 38-20 victory. In the early slate of games, the Ravens and Jaguars covering the spread were considered the worst results for Caesars Sportsbook. Lamar Jackson, the Ravens’ quarterback, attracted the most bets in the PointsBet/Fanatics’ anytime touchdown scorer market, but failed to find the end zone in the Ravens’ 25-9 win over the Texans.
Tom Gable, the sportsbook director for The Borgata in Atlantic City, found himself in an unusual position before Sunday’s early games. His book needed the favorites to cover the spread in every game, a rare occurrence in the betting world. “Our biggest need is the Bengals,” Gable said. However, the Bengals disappointed, losing to the Browns 24-3. In the early games, favorites went 4-4 against the spread.
The Lions-Chiefs game received significant attention on Sporttrade, a betting exchange operating in New Jersey and Colorado, with trades exceeding $130,000. Caesars Sportsbook Vice President of Trading, Craig Mucklow, expressed the importance of the Bills covering the spread against the Jets in the following week.
To kick off Week 2, the opening lines, provided by the Superbook, are as follows:
– Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 48.5)
– Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 46.5) at Tennessee Titans
– Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, 4)
– Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-2.5, 41)
– Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5)
– Chicago Bears (-1.5, 44) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
– Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 47.5)
– Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 52) at Jacksonville Jaguars
– Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 47.5)
– New York Giants (-5.5, 38) at Arizona Cardinals
– San Francisco 49ers (-6, 42.5) at Los Angeles Rams
– New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 46.5)
– Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 41.5)
– Miami Dolphins (-2, 45) at New England Patriots
– New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 42.5) at Carolina Panthers
– Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 43.5)
Moving on to college football, the Colorado-Nebraska game generated massive betting action, estimated to be upwards of $60 million, making it the most heavily bet game on Saturday, even surpassing the UFC middleweight title fight. FanDuel reported accepting a $1 million bet on the Buffaloes (-2.5), which ended up winning comfortably.
Prime’s successful run at Colorado is beneficial for business as it attracts interest and betting activity. Murray of the SuperBook is hoping for the tides to turn on a CU game. Initially favored by 19 points, the line quickly moved to Buffaloes -23 against Colorado State.
Looking ahead to Week 3, some notable early line moves, according to Caesars Sportsbook, are:
– Florida State from -25 to -29 over Boston College
– Tennessee from -4 to -7 over Florida
In terms of the updated odds to win the College Football Playoff, the top contenders are:
– Georgia Bulldogs (+210)
– Michigan Wolverines (+500)
– Texas Longhorns (+850)
– Ohio State Buckeyes (+900)
– Florida State Seminoles (+1,000)
– USC Trojans (+1,400)
– Penn State Nittany Lions (+2,000)
– Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2,000)
– Alabama Crimson Tide (+2,200)
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