The aftermath of the Russian attack on Odesa, Ukraine’s city, has left one person dead, nearly 20 injured, and severe damage to a Russian-linked Orthodox cathedral, according to Reuters. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has now entered a slow-burn phase after 18 months of intense fighting. The focus has shifted to Kyiv’s counteroffensive and Moscow’s efforts to hold its captured territory and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting and a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer, explains that the Russian offensive is now progressing at a low-intensity pace as they seek to maintain control over captured territory and hinder the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Koffler believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to pursue major gains at this stage, as his objective in Ukraine has largely been achieved with control over roughly 20% of the country. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict and lack of territorial integrity prevent Ukraine from meeting NATO’s requirements, which is Putin’s red line. The Russian State Duma recently voted to increase the age of conscription to 30 years, allowing Putin to expand his forces in the eastern disputed territories of Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia’s Ministry of Defense plans to implement this age limit increase gradually. The escalation follows a series of authorized attacks on Ukrainian trade routes and facilities such as the Danube Port, a vital part of the grain route. The attacks have disrupted Ukraine’s grain exports, threatening global food supplies, as Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe.” The United Kingdom’s Permanent Representative to the U.N., Amb. Barbara Woodward, emphasizes that Putin has full control over the situation but chooses to cause as much suffering as possible. She calls on Russia to stop holding global food supplies to ransom and rejoin the Black Sea grain deal. While Ukraine launched a counteroffensive, it has yet to make a breakthrough against Russia’s heavily fortified defenses. U.S. military officials caution against expecting immediate success and believe the conflict will be long, hard, and bloody. Koffler predicts that Putin will continue with low-intensity strikes to destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure, aiming to turn the country into a dysfunctional state that cannot feed its people or export grains. She also notes that Russia has targeted Ukraine’s cultural and religious landmarks as part of a psychological pressure campaign. Putin might use the pressure on global food prices to compel Western leaders to lift sanctions on Russia and withdraw support from Ukraine, hoping for a swift end to the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had hoped to secure NATO membership but was rejected by President Biden, who emphasizes the need for a “rational path” for Ukraine. Instead, NATO has committed to assisting Ukraine in transitioning away from Soviet-era doctrines and equipment.
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