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In recent developments, the Kremlin has confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Russia in the near future. The purpose of this meeting, as stated by Turkish ruling AK Party spokesperson Omer Celik, is to discuss the new framework for the grain deal. It’s worth noting that this deal, which was initially brokered by Erdogan in July 2022 but later terminated by Putin, allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea using Odesa’s seaports. This grain is a vital source of food for developing nations worldwide.
While it may seem like Erdogan has some extraordinary power to convince his authoritarian counterpart to revive the deal and prevent world hunger, we must dispel this misconception. The truth is that Putin’s strategy revolves around weaponizing food security to coerce Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and compel the West to abandon Ukraine in its conflict against Russia. This mass starvation tactic aligns with Russia’s asymmetric military strategy, which has been in development since Putin took office over two decades ago under the guidance of the Russian General Staff.
The Russian goal in adopting this strategy was to counterbalance Western superiority in conventional warfare. The strategists predicted that a direct kinetic conflict between Russia and the United States would inevitably arise over what Russia views as its strategic security perimeter, with Ukraine playing a central role. Currently, Moscow perceives itself as fighting a proxy war with the US and Europe, and it is employing the tactics previously devised by the General Staff.
Recognizing that the Russian military could not outmatch the mechanics and tactics of the US and NATO, Putin’s planners decided to shift their focus to the adversary’s mindset rather than their military capabilities. This led to the weaponization of various elements, including winter, food, and water, in Ukraine. By destroying critical infrastructure and subjecting Ukrainians to freezing temperatures and starvation, Russia aims to crush their will to fight.
The official term for Putin’s strategy is the “strategy of indirect action,” and it draws heavily from the works of British strategist B.H. Liddell Hart. While incorporating despotic methods, the Russian military has adapted Hart’s concept of indirect action to suit their needs. Hart argued that the invention of nuclear weapons rendered victory in a total war impossible due to the threat of annihilation. Consequently, strategists should seek indirect ways to combat opponents, aiming to weaken them in limited wars rather than engaging in all-out aggression. Russia’s strategy encompasses economic coercion, diplomatic pressure, subversive activities, blockades, “scorched earth” tactics, and sabotage.
Psychological warfare plays a crucial role in Russia’s asymmetric approach. It targets not only Ukraine’s armed forces and population but also Western audiences, including heads of state, decision-makers, and the military, political, and business sectors. The ultimate objective is to change the opponent’s calculation regarding the cost of fighting Russia, highlighting that the benefits are far outweighed by the consequences. To achieve this, Russia is prepared to sustain significant casualties and commit atrocities.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has witnessed an array of tactics employed by Russia to split Ukraine from the West and weaken the resolve of Kyiv, Washington, and Brussels. These tactics include industrial sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline, targeting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, attacking storage facilities and ports vital to Ukraine’s grain transport, and engaging in hostage diplomacy by capturing individuals like Brittney Griner and Evan Gershkovich. The Russian strategy seeks to isolate Ukraine from its allies and hinder the deployment of forces.
The essence of Russia’s strategy lies in elevating strategy itself above brute force in warfighting. While the Russians have extensively studied Hart’s works, they have incorporated a brutal aspect into their approach. Unlike the West’s “Just War Theory,” which imposes limits on combatants, Russia has always adhered to the philosophy of the ends justifying the means. In July, the United Nations’ humanitarian chief warned of the dire consequences resulting from Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, emphasizing that millions of people are at risk of hunger and death.
As the world awaits the outcome of the forthcoming Putin-Erdogan meeting, it is essential to recognize that Putin’s decision-making is not driven by compassion. His mindset is rooted in a Russian perspective, influenced by his background as a KGB spy master and by the historical figures who have governed the country in the past. The tactic of starving the world to enforce his red line on Ukraine perfectly aligns with Putin’s mindset and Russia’s way of war, as he views the outcome in Ukraine as existential for his nation and himself.
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