The recent New York Times/Siena College poll has highlighted some vulnerabilities for the Democrats. The survey found that former President Donald Trump and President Biden are tied at 43% each in a hypothetical 2024 election, with 16% undecided or considering other options. One significant, yet overlooked, aspect of the poll is Biden’s weakness among nonwhite working-class voters. While Biden only holds a 16-point lead over Trump in this demographic, he had a 48-point lead in 2020 and former President Barack Obama enjoyed a 67-point advantage in 2012. This decline in support among nonwhite working-class voters poses a direct threat to the Democrats’ reliance on nonwhite voters for electoral success, as these working-class voters make up a significant portion of the nonwhite vote.
So why is this happening? It becomes evident that the nonwhite working class leans less progressive, while the Democratic Party continues to move further left. In the Times poll, a majority of these voters identify as moderate-to-conservative, with less than a quarter considering themselves liberal. This creates a contradiction between the Democratic Party and the nonwhite working class, who have traditionally provided the party with large margins to compensate for shortcomings elsewhere. A recent survey conducted by AEI’s Survey Center on American Life and the National Opinion Research Center sheds light on some key differences between the Democratic Party and nonwhite working-class voters:
1. Structural racism: When asked about the origins of racism, moderate-to-conservative nonwhite working-class voters predominantly believe that racism stems from individuals rather than society and institutions. This contrasts with the beliefs of nonwhite college-educated liberals, who are more likely to endorse the idea of structural racism.
2. Public safety: Nonwhite moderate-to-conservative working-class voters prioritize fully funding police departments over reallocating funds to social services. On the other hand, nonwhite college-grad liberals are more inclined to support diverting funds from police departments to social services.
3. Transgender athletes: Moderate-to-conservative nonwhite working-class voters tend to believe that transgender athletes should only be allowed to play on sports teams that match their birth gender. This contradicts the current Democratic Party stance, which advocates for transgender athletes to play on teams matching their gender identity. In contrast, nonwhite and white college-grad liberals support the Democratic Party’s position on this issue.
4. Renewable energy: While the Democratic Party pushes for a transition to renewable energy sources, moderate-to-conservative nonwhite working-class voters still strongly endorse the use of fossil fuels. Nonwhite college-grad liberals and white college-grad liberals, on the other hand, are more supportive of completely phasing out fossil fuels.
Furthermore, the nonwhite working class is not particularly satisfied with the Biden administration’s accomplishments. A majority of moderate-to-conservative nonwhite working-class voters believe Biden has accomplished little or nothing during his time in office, while nonwhite college-grad liberals and white college-grad liberals are more positive in their assessment.
The survey findings reveal that the Democratic Party has moved further left on both economic and cultural/social issues, which has caused a disconnect with the nonwhite working class. Many moderate-to-conservative nonwhite working-class voters feel that the party has become too progressive. This is particularly evident in their views on transgender issues, where a significant portion of these voters support banning transgender medical treatments for minors and prohibiting discussions of gender ideology in public schools.
Democrats should carefully consider whether they can afford to alienate a substantial portion of nonwhite working-class voters. The decline in support among this demographic in 2020 should serve as a warning. While Trump’s future indictments may influence the political landscape, it is still likely to be a challenging task for Democrats to defeat him or any other Republican candidate. The party must reevaluate its image and policy commitments to be more appealing to nonwhite working-class voters.
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