A plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of a short-lived mutiny, crashed today in a sparsely populated area northwest of Moscow. Russian media reports that Prigozhin and one of his top commanders have died in the crash. The incident raises questions about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has executed his once-trusted friend who posed a significant challenge to his regime.
Here’s what we know so far: the aircraft belonged to Prigozhin and was one of his personal business jets. It took off from Moscow and was likely headed to St. Petersburg, where Prigozhin operated. Flight-tracking data shows that the plane was flying at 28,000 feet before it suddenly crashed. Another jet believed to be Prigozhin’s turned back and landed safely in Moscow. The Russian aviation ministry has confirmed Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin, co-founder of the Wagner group, were on the crashed jet.
With Prigozhin’s demise, it marks the end of the Wagner Group, a highly effective Russian fighting unit in Ukraine. Killing Prigozhin and his lieutenants aligns with the Mafia logic that defines Putin’s Kremlin. Prigozhin not only challenged Putin’s authority but also humiliated him during his rebellion. It must have been unbearable for Putin, being forced to meet with the man who betrayed him. Reports suggest that Putin has ordered killings for far less than an uprising in the capital.
However, several unanswered questions remain if the plane crash was indeed an execution. Why now? And why in Russia? There are indications that this was not a random aviation accident but a deliberate move by the Putin regime to remind Russians, particularly the elites, of their vulnerability when opposing the Kremlin’s leader.
The timing may not be entirely surprising. Although many expected Putin to retaliate against Prigozhin following the rebellion last June, his patience may reflect his insecurity. Prigozhin’s success in occupying the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and marching his forces close to the capital would have enraged Putin. The Russian president likely spent weeks strategizing with his trusted advisors to uncover Prigozhin’s plans and assess potential threats.
Dealing with a conspiracy takes time, as does planning a murder. The initial agreement between the Kremlin and Prigozhin allowed him and his men to seek refuge in Belarus. Killing Prigozhin in Belarus would have embarrassed Putin, as it would have made Lukashenko look foolish. Alternatively, killing him in a distant country like Africa would have raised doubts about how and if Prigozhin died.
Destroying Prigozhin’s plane as it departed Moscow is a clear message to Russia’s elites who heavily rely on private aviation for travel. It signifies that nobody is safe if Putin is willing to execute Prigozhin in broad daylight within Russia. Additionally, reports indicate that General Sergei Surovikin was removed from his post as the commander of Russian aerospace forces, which further suggests a link to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Surovikin was detained shortly after Prigozhin’s rebellion for allegedly supporting the mutiny.
In a Mafia context, attacking an underboss without permission is unheard of. If Prigozhin plotted against Shoigu with Surovikin’s involvement, destroying his plane using aerospace assets that may have been under Surovikin’s previous command is like leaving a calling card from the Defense Ministry at the scene. While Shoigu may be disliked, and Surovikin may have been respected, nobody dares to defy an underboss without consequences.
It’s worth considering Ian Fleming’s words from Goldfinger: “Once is happenstance; twice is coincidence; three times is enemy action.” The timing of Prigozhin’s crash, exactly two months after the rebellion, along with the removal of Surovikin, raises suspicions of a coordinated attack. In a country where important events usually require approval from Red Square, these many coincidences seem unlikely.
Prigozhin had been living on borrowed time since the rebellion last June. If he is indeed dead in today’s crash, Putin has taken his revenge in a remarkable manner. However, it remains to be seen if another murder will be enough to suppress the growing instability within Russia’s streets, boardrooms, and barracks.
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