Manitoba is gearing up for its 43rd provincial election, set to take place in the coming week. Regardless of the outcome—whether the Progressive Conservatives maintain their position or the New Democrats seize power—history will be made. If the PCs come out on top, Heather Stefanson will become the first woman in Manitoba’s history to lead her party to victory in a general election. Stefanson is already the province’s first female premier, having achieved that milestone when she won her party’s leadership following Brian Pallister’s resignation in 2021. On the other hand, if the New Democrats secure a win, their leader, Wab Kinew, will become the first Indigenous provincial premier in Canada’s history. (While the country’s territories have had Indigenous premiers, no province has ever been led by an Indigenous person.)
Kinew is in his second election as the leader of his party, and until recently, it seemed likely that Manitobans would choose him as their next premier. However, the two public polls conducted since the end of May indicate that Stefanson’s PCs have closed the gap. Nevertheless, this election is not limited to a two-party race. The Manitoba Liberals and the Manitoba Greens have both garnered significant support in the past two elections, and the decisions made by their previous supporters, especially those of the Liberals, could prove decisive in this election.
In 2019, over 69,000 Manitobans voted for a Manitoba Liberal candidate, accounting for roughly 14% of the popular vote province-wide and nearly 19% in Winnipeg. Additionally, just under 30,000 people cast their votes for the Green party, representing 6.4% of the province-wide vote and 7.3% in the capital. Four years ago, the NDP and PCs were evenly matched in Winnipeg’s 32 seats, with the PCs winning 15 districts and the NDP securing 14 seats. The Liberals ended up with three seats in the capital.
While the NDP enjoys strength in northern Manitoba ridings, with all four seats held by the party, and the PCs dominate outside of Winnipeg, holding all 21 seats, the battleground lies in Winnipeg, as is often the case in Manitoba elections.
However, unlike the previous elections, which were widely seen as inevitable victories for the PCs, the dynamics of this campaign are different. The NDP now has a real chance to displace the PCs, while the PCs themselves have a fighting chance to retain their hold on government. The race will be tight. If the roughly 100,000 voters, mostly in Winnipeg, who voted Liberal or Green in 2019 decide to support a change of government rather than simply protest the incumbent, they may swing the vote in favor of the NDP.
Take the riding of McPhillips, for instance, which includes northern Winnipeg neighborhoods and the rural municipality of West St. Paul. In the previous election, PC candidate Shannon Martin won by a narrow margin of just 88 votes, while the Liberal candidate received more than 1,500 votes and the Green candidate received over 400 votes. This year, with Martin not in the running, Sheilagh Restall will represent the PCs, while JD Devgan will run for the New Democrats. To secure victory, Devgan must retain the support from 2019 and convince a few hundred of the 1,900 combined Liberal and Green voters from the previous election to support him and overcome the NDP’s 88-vote deficit.
Similar math applies to other Winnipeg ridings, such as Southdale, Rossmere, Assiniboia, Radisson, Riel, Waverley, Kildonan-River East, and Seine River. To form a government, the NDP will need to secure some victories outside of Winnipeg. In Brandon, Dauphin, and even Portage-la-Prairie, the swing of 2019 Liberal voters to the NDP could overpower local PC campaigns. In all of these ridings, the combined NDP and Liberal votes in 2019 would have surpassed the PC vote.
Even in the traditionally Tory stronghold of Tuxedo, represented by Stefanson since 2000, the combined NDP-Liberal vote in 2019 would have yielded a different outcome.
Interestingly, in the federal arena, we often witness Liberals urging soft NDP voters to unite under the red banner to prevent a Conservative government. However, in Manitoba’s upcoming election, it will be the New Democrats who will appeal to Liberals and Greens to join forces under their progressive orange banner to prevent the election of a conservative government that neither party wants.
In conclusion, the 43rd provincial election in Manitoba is shaping up to be an exciting and closely contested race. History will be made regardless of the outcome, with the possibility of the province’s first female premier leading her party to victory or an Indigenous person assuming the role of a provincial premier for the first time ever in Canada. The decision of previous Liberal and Green party supporters may play a crucial role in determining the next government.
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