The political deadlock between supporters of the Liberal and Conservative parties in Canada seems to have finally shifted, according to new polling data. A recent Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News reveals that the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, are slightly ahead with 37% of Canadians saying they would vote for them. This marks a four-point increase since February. Meanwhile, the Liberals have fallen behind with 32% of the votes, one point lower than their previous polling in February.
The polling data shows that both parties have been locked in a stalemate since 2019, but this is the first time that either side has been able to gain an advantage. Darrell Bricker, the global CEO of Ipsos public affairs, explains that this shift is a result of “fatigue” with the current Liberal government rather than growing support for the Conservatives. People are dissatisfied with the direction of the country, and they blame the Trudeau administration for that.
The recent federal byelections in Ontario, Manitoba, and Quebec confirmed the tight race between the two major parties, as predicted by pollsters. Additionally, support for the New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, has declined by two points with only 16% of respondents saying they would vote for the NDP. The NDP entered into a governance deal with the Liberal minority government in March 2022, which has made it difficult for them to differentiate themselves from the Liberals.
The polling data also shows that the Bloc Quebecois would receive 8% of the national vote, followed by the Green Party with 3% and the People’s Party with 2%. Around 10% of Canadians are still undecided about their voting intentions, while 6% either plan to abstain from voting or spoil their vote.
Regionally, the Conservatives have solidified their support in Western Canada, while the Liberals perform better in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. In Ontario, the most populous province, both parties have equal support at around 38%. The polling data also reveals that younger voters are becoming more open to supporting the Conservatives, reflecting a growing disaffection among this demographic.
These findings are based on an Ipsos poll conducted between June 19 and 20, 2023, with a sample of 1,000 Canadians aged 18 and older. Quotas and weighting were applied to ensure that the sample represents the Canadian population according to census parameters. The margin of error for the poll is ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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