Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, announced on Twitter that the country’s parliamentary election will take place on October 15th. This official announcement marks the beginning of an electoral campaign that has been informally happening for months and is being influenced by Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The election will determine members of the 460-seat lower house of parliament, known as the Sejm, as well as the 100-seat Senate. The winning party will form the next government and serve a four-year term. Recent polls indicate that Law and Justice, the conservative party currently in power, is leading the race but may not secure an outright majority.
The opposing centrist bloc, the Civic Coalition, led by former prime minister Donald Tusk, is gaining ground in popularity. However, its growth is primarily at the expense of other opposition parties. The election campaign is taking place amidst growing concerns in Poland over the presence of Russia-linked Wagner mercenaries near the country’s northeastern border in Belarus. Tensions have also risen with Ukraine, particularly regarding grain imports and historical conflicts.
To strengthen its stance on national defense, the ruling party has increased security at the Belarus border and planned a military parade to showcase its modernized military equipment. Although Poland has been supportive of Ukraine in the past, recent confrontational rhetoric has emerged due to the rising influence of a far-right political group called Confederation, which is critical of aiding Ukrainians.
Poland’s support for Ukraine, as well as its acceptance of Ukrainian refugees, has garnered praise from President Joe Biden following Russia’s invasion in February 2022. This support has allowed Poland’s government to divert attention from concerns raised by the West regarding its treatment of the judiciary, media, LGBTQ+ individuals, and other minorities.
The ruling party has gained popularity among many Poles due to its conservative values and increased welfare assistance for the elderly and families with children. However, the monthly cash payments introduced by the party have faced criticism from economists, businesspeople, and young adults who argue that it has contributed to high inflation rates and burdened taxpayers.
Criticism of the policy has contributed to the growing popularity of Confederation, which includes far-right nationalists and pro-business libertarians. Some members of this group advocate against the “Ukrainization” of Poland. Recent tensions between Poland and Ukraine have further escalated due to disagreements over food imports, particularly grains, causing an oversupply and lowering prices for local farmers.
As the election approaches, the ruling party has fired the health minister, Adam Niedzielski, who received backlash for revealing personal details about a doctor who criticized government health policies.
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