Back in 2018, as Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) neared the end of its first term in office, its leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, stated to one newspaper that his radical right project had just begun. “We are preparing a long march,” said Mr Kaczyński, “one needs, not two, but three terms.”
On Sunday, Poles turned out in remarkable numbers to thwart that ambition, and they seem to have succeeded in a monumental fashion. Provisional results indicate that the highest election turnout since the fall of communism resulted in a clear victory for the opposition coalition of parties. Although PiS emerged as the largest electoral force, it lost its majority and appears to have no feasible path to form a new one. This is an immensely significant outcome for Poland and Europe, and a cause for celebration among progressives.
During its eight years in power, PiS has become synonymous with illiberal politics in Europe. While in government, it has systematically eroded the checks, balances, and cultural norms that underpin mainstream democracies. The independence of the judiciary and media has been undermined, and state television has been transformed into a propaganda machine for PiS. Non-European migrants and LGBTQ+ communities have been vilified and portrayed as threats to the nation’s integrity. Conservative Catholic influence has been mobilized to severely restrict abortion rights, leading to mass protests. And alongside Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Kaczyński’s Poland has shown disdain for European Union values and norms, and resisted cooperation on issues like the migration crisis.
If the result is confirmed, the main opposition leader, Donald Tusk, will have the opportunity to halt this oppressive, authoritarian, and confrontational path. With Poland being one of the EU’s strategically important member states, this will provide a much-needed boost to European unity in these challenging times. As a former president of the European Council, Mr. Tusk is expected to address the rule of law concerns that have strained relations with Brussels since 2015. Moreover, Poland under his leadership would play a supportive role in maintaining Western support for Ukraine and in delicate negotiations regarding EU expansion to the east.
However, repairing the civic and constitutional damage inflicted over the past eight years won’t be easy. Andrzej Duda, the PiS-aligned president, remains in office, and managing a coalition government consisting of Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform party, the center-right, and the left will be complex. Exit poll data from Sunday confirms PiS’s continued support in provincial and rural areas, as well as among the less educated population. To unify a polarized country after a bitter campaign, Mr. Tusk will need to address the concerns of these constituencies.
Although there are potential challenges and issues ahead, the astonishing 73% voter turnout on Sunday – 11% higher than in 2019 – demonstrates a popular mobilization against PiS that has halted Kaczyński’s “long march” in its tracks. Especially the youth have taken heed of the call to make their voices heard through voting. Those who participated have contributed to an inspiring and crucial reaffirmation of liberal democratic values in Poland.
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