There are reasons to believe that failure could occur again. However, concerns about this aspect of a potential Trump presidency in the future are also justified.
In Washington, it is often said that personnel determines policy. A second Trump executive branch would differ significantly from the first in terms of its members and their plans for restructuring the federal government.
The “administrative state” comprises the individuals and agencies responsible for policy implementation, law enforcement, and service provision, with some degree of insulation from political influence. Right-wing thinkers, who argue that the US constitution grants the president nearly unlimited authority over the executive branch, have long been dissatisfied with this independence. They have consistently sought to expand the president’s power, particularly when a Republican is in the White House.
This effort is now directed towards enhancing Trump’s authority in a potential second term. Through established conservative organizations and newer Trump-centric groups like the America First Policy Institute, Trump’s associates are devising a plan to consolidate federal authority in his hands. This involves the dismissal of a significant number of civil servants and their replacement with loyalists, the usurpation of power from independent agencies, and the refusal to spend Congress-appropriated funds.
The broader their ambitions, the higher the likelihood of occasional setbacks due to judicial constraints or their own incompetence, particularly considering Trump’s track record. However, many of their past failures occurred when they hastily implemented ill-conceived schemes, such as attempting to sway an election. This time, they are approaching their plans with caution and meticulousness.
The Heritage Foundation’s comprehensive plan for the next GOP administration explicitly states the importance of dismantling the centralized administrative state. According to an organizer of Heritage’s effort to compile lists of potential administration appointees, anyone who opposed the Trump administration, including those who blamed him for the insurrection, will not be considered for appointments.
Donald Moynihan, a political scientist at Georgetown University specializing in government administration, points out that Trump’s frustration with the so-called deep state largely stemmed from his own political appointees. However, he believes Trump has resolved this issue by assembling thousands of loyalists who have undergone thorough vetting.
The civil service, characterized by strong job protections and a mandate for non-partisanship, is now being targeted for purging. Shortly before the 2020 election, Trump signed an executive order called Schedule F, which would have allowed him to convert tens of thousands of civil servants into political appointees, granting him the power to dismiss them at will and replace them with his own allies.
However, the executive order came too late to have any impact, as President Biden rescinded it upon taking office.
Trump’s plan seeks to fundamentally alter the public sector by potentially creating long-lasting challenges in recruiting skilled individuals who wish to serve their country in a non-political capacity. This could lead to increased corruption and reduced governmental capability. The transparency with which these intentions are being voiced makes it a looming concern under the next Republican administration,” Moynihan warns.
If Trump were to be elected president again, he would pursue a typical Republican policy agenda, including tax cuts, abortion restrictions, and environmental deregulation. However, his most significant impact could potentially be a complete overhaul of the government, reminiscent of the New Deal era. This transformation may be one of his most enduring and damaging legacies.
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