In 2003, Sudan experienced a rebellion in its Darfur region due to years of oppression and neglect towards African communities. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir turned to local armed Arab groups, known as the Janjaweed, to suppress the uprising. The Janjaweed quickly became a powerful force and successfully quelled the revolt, gaining al-Bashir’s trust and support. Similarly, in 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin retaliated against Ukrainian rebellion by annexing Crimea and starting a conflict in eastern Ukraine. To disguise his invasion, Putin enlisted the help of Yevgeny Prigozhin to create a mercenary force called Wagner, which proved to be effective and became a valuable tool for Putin’s foreign policy ventures. However, both al-Bashir and Putin underestimated the dangers of relying on mercenaries for their consolidation of power, as these forces ultimately turned against them.
Al-Bashir’s decision to employ mercenaries in Darfur backfired and led to his political downfall. The Janjaweed, along with the Sudanese army, committed numerous war crimes against the Darfuris, resulting in an arrest warrant for al-Bashir from the International Criminal Court. In an attempt to secure his regime’s stability, al-Bashir transformed the Janjaweed militia into the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and placed its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), in a prominent position. This move was intended to fragment the military sector and protect al-Bashir from potential coups. However, this strategy proved unsuccessful, and in 2019, widespread protests erupted across Sudan, demanding al-Bashir’s resignation. Hemedti, once considered al-Bashir’s protector, ultimately sided with the military, leading to the ousting of the president. Unfortunately, the RSF and the military elites suppressed the civilian protest movement and plunged Sudan into further conflict, resulting in the displacement of millions and the potential collapse of the state.
Similarly, Putin’s reliance on mercenaries through Wagner in Ukraine and other countries came with unforeseen consequences. As tensions rose and the conflict did not go according to plan, Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner, turned against the military leadership, blaming them for setbacks. This feud escalated into a mutiny in 2021, with Wagner mercenaries attempting to overthrow top military officials and posing a significant threat to Putin’s rule. Although the rebellion was eventually called off, it exposed Putin’s weaknesses as a leader and raised doubts about his control over the military and security apparatus. This event has cast uncertainty on Putin’s hold on power, particularly with upcoming presidential elections in 2024.
The experiences of al-Bashir and Putin should serve as a cautionary tale for leaders considering utilizing mercenaries to consolidate power. Outsourcing government responsibilities to private militias can lead to self-destruction and the loss of control over military structures. It is crucial for leaders to recognize the dangers and potential consequences of relying on violent collaborators like Hemedti and Prigozhin. The events discussed in this article highlight the inherent risks of playing a mercenary game and should be a lesson for leaders seeking to maintain power through such means.
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