In anticipation of Sunday’s election in Spain, the Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, delivered an optimistic video message to Vox party supporters, proclaiming that “the hour of the patriots has arrived.” This statement reflected a growing concern that authoritarian, xenophobic nationalism was becoming normalized in European politics.
However, the results of the election surprised many. Despite a high turnout in scorching summer heat, Vox lost 19 seats and experienced a decline in its share of the vote compared to its breakthrough election in 2019. The conservative People’s Party (PP), led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, emerged with the most seats but fell short of securing a majority. Consequently, the possibility of Vox serving as a junior coalition partner under a PP-led administration is now unlikely. This development signifies a retreat from the prospect of radical right presence in Spain’s national government, which has not been seen since the restoration of democracy in 1975.
For progressives within and outside of Spain, this outcome is a reason to celebrate after a troubling period. Recent European elections have witnessed the radical right’s agenda on issues such as irregular immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, and net zero sustainability being incorporated into the political mainstream. Center-right parties, driven by the ambition of attaining power, have supported this integration through alliances and coalitions.
This convergence has already occurred at a local level in Spain, where PP-Vox coalitions have been established in regions like Castilla y León. By calling for a snap election following disastrous regional election results in May, Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took a gamble, hoping that memories of Franco’s dictatorship would galvanize enough minds to counter the rising Vox threat on a national scale. He can now claim that his judgment has been vindicated.
However, what lies ahead is uncertain. Although the election outcome may temporarily thwart a shift towards the nationalist right, Mr. Sánchez’s Socialists, who finished second to the PP, will need the support of various smaller parties, including Catalonia’s hardline pro-independence party, Junts, and the pro-independence Basque party EH Bildu, notorious for its historical ties to the former terrorist group Eta. Negotiating with these parties in a fragmented and polarized political landscape could lead to a stalemate and possibly necessitate a new election, the sixth in eight years.
Given the complexities of the Spanish context and the specific issues surrounding nationhood and nationalism in the post-Franco era, it would be unwise to draw simplistic conclusions from Sunday’s result for the rest of Europe. Nonetheless, Spanish voters have rejected the idea of replicating regional PP-Vox coalitions on a national scale, having witnessed their illiberal consequences. Particularly in a week when the leader of Germany’s Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, has endorsed the idea of local alliances with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party, this rejection is undoubtedly good news.
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