What if we consider the patterns of actual individual behavior? After all, policies and guidance can only go so far.
If we recall the countless social media videos of arguments over masking policies in popular retailers like Walmart and Whole Foods, it might be hard to believe that surveys conducted throughout 2020 showed only a small partisan gap on the issue. Surprisingly, a large survey conducted by Pew in August 2020 revealed that 92 percent of Democrats claimed to have worn masks consistently in stores and other businesses over the previous month, while 76 percent of Republicans reported the same. These gaps would widen significantly over the next six months.
In a somewhat eerie manner, it is also possible to track the actual social behavior of individuals through cellphone data. For instance, Google’s mobility data from the summer of 2020 indicated that the states with the largest declines in retail activity were Hawaii, California, New York, Florida, New Jersey, Arizona, Massachusetts, and Texas. As fall arrived, the biggest declines in grocery activity were observed in Hawaii, Florida, California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. However, across all 50 states, the overall impact on activity levels was less than 4 percentage points below the levels seen before the pandemic.
So, what led to this shift? How did the initial agreement during the pandemic transform into a stark representation of our divisive culture war?
First and foremost, it is worth recalling that there was a presidential campaign happening during this time. The challenger blamed the incumbent for the severity of the pandemic, whereas the incumbent downplayed its significance.
Secondly, there was a collective sense of fatigue regarding mitigation policies, such as closed schools, limited socialization, and suspended professional, family, and romantic life. Each political party presented different perspectives on how to move forward and leave the previous six months behind.
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