Formerly an oasis of relative prosperity and safety in South America, the oil-exporting nation of Ecuador (population 17.8 million) now finds itself on the brink of political chaos. After the recent assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate in the upcoming elections, the state of affairs cannot be understated.
In response to this tragedy, the Biden administration has shown appropriate concern, condemning the murder and dispatching FBI personnel to assist in the investigation. If the next government in Ecuador is one that the United States can collaborate with, there may be an opportunity for enhanced security cooperation to address the rising issues in both countries. Particularly, the United States is witnessing a surge of Ecuadoran migration to its southern border.
Fernando Villavicencio, a member of the national legislature, was a brave and prominent critic of government corruption and the violent drug mafias responsible for fostering it. His murder, along with other recent political killings, is suspected to be the work of one or more organized crime groups in Ecuador. These killings, marked by their audacity, are a consequence of ongoing turf wars among these gangs. Over the past five years, Ecuador’s murder rate has quintupled, with victims subjected to bombings, beheadings, and gruesome displays meant to instill fear. Combined with the devastating impact of the early and severe outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, this surge in violence has driven a significant increase in Ecuadoran migration to the U.S. southern border.
Ecuador’s democracy, already destabilized by partisan disputes that led to the dissolution of Congress, now faces the threat of being overrun by lawlessness. There are two possible outcomes: either the gangs render the country ungovernable, or the next government establishes a police state to suppress them. The latter option cannot be discounted entirely, given the popularity of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele in the region. Bukele has managed to drastically reduce homicides in El Salvador by aggressively arresting alleged gang members without due process. One of Ecuador’s presidential candidates, Jan Topic, a political newcomer and former French Foreign Legionnaire, promises to adopt similar policies.
Another concerning outcome would be the victory of Luisa González, the candidate backed by former president Rafael Correa. Correa, a pro-Venezuela leftist, curtailed press freedoms during his presidency and attempted to imprison Fernando Villavicencio. Currently living in Belgium after being convicted of corruption by an Ecuadoran court, Correa poses a risk to the country’s future. The presidential race may ultimately be decided through a runoff between the top two finishers on August 20th.
Taking into account political compatibility, the Biden administration should consider assisting Ecuador in regaining control over its prisons, which have effectively become command centers for the gangs. The United States, in partnership with European nations, should also increase intelligence-gathering efforts on the transnational criminal groups originating in Albania that are competing with Mexican cartels for control over cocaine exports from Ecuador, much of which is destined for Europe.
Organized crime poses a significant threat to Latin American democracies, spanning from the Rio Grande to Tierra del Fuego. To prevent these countries from resorting to authoritarian methods, the United States must help show that lawful approaches can be effective.
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