Kevin Rudd, former prime minister of Australia and an expert on China, presents a thought-provoking analysis of potential conflicts between the US and China in his book, “The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping’s China.” Taking a creative approach, Rudd explores ten distinct plotlines, with a central focus on the fate of Taiwan. One scenario that stands out is the possibility of China attempting to forcefully take the island while the US chooses not to respond, leading to what Rudd terms America’s “Munich moment” and undermining its moral authority. Even worse, if the United States were to respond militarily but ultimately lose the fight, it would signify the end of the American century. It is worth noting that half of the scenarios in Rudd’s book involve some form of major armed conflict, making his perspective relatively dovish compared to other scholars.
In Elliot Ackerman and James Stavridis’ 2021 fictional work, “2034,” the authors delve into a war story that is likely to keep readers engaged as they explore the path to a nuclear war. The story unfolds with a seemingly chance encounter between a flotilla of US destroyers and a Chinese trawler equipped with advanced intelligence technology in the South China Sea. Within a matter of months, this encounter escalates into a global war, resulting in the devastation of major cities, the loss of millions of lives, and a power vacuum in both Washington and Beijing. Ackerman and Stavridis introduce a compelling Chinese character with strong ties to the US, who reminisces about a class at Harvard titled “The History of War” taught by a professor with a deep appreciation for Greek culture. This detail might serve as both a critique and homage to influential figures like Graham Allison, as “2034” portrays the entangled relationship between China and the United States through the lens of Thucydides’ ideas.
Rudd’s cautionary message in “The Avoidable War” warns of the temptation for Beijing and Washington to escalate hostilities, whether to save lives or maintain their reputation. Ackerman and Stavridis echo this sentiment in their novel, where an excessively hawkish US national security adviser, aptly named Wisecarver, and an overconfident Chinese defense minister engage in a series of escalations that lead to the destruction of cities like San Diego and Shanghai. Surprisingly, India emerges as a global power in the aftermath, both militarily and as a mediator. Ackerman and Stavridis emphasize that this conflict, while tragic, could have been avoided if not for the hubris and recklessness of decision-makers.
Considering the perspectives presented in these books, it becomes evident that tragedy looms on the horizon. Allison sheds light on the rise of Chinese nationalism under President Xi Jinping, framing it as a long-term effort to avenge China’s historical grievances and regain its position as a global power. Both the United States and China perceive themselves as exceptional nations with their own unique destinies. While Washington seeks to maintain its dominant role through the Pax Americana, China views the rules-based international order as a mechanism for American dominance, seeking to disrupt and challenge it. This clash of exceptionalism and conflicting national ambitions forms the crux of the potential conflict.
The extent and sustainability of China’s greatness remain subjects of debate in these books. Allison contends that China’s economic power now tilts dramatically in its favor, making continued US hegemony unrealistic. However, authors Brands and Beckley, writing five years later, present a different perspective, portraying China as a nation with myriad challenges. Despite their saber-rattling on the global stage, Brands and Beckley argue that China faces threats from abroad, an aging population, and a faltering economy. They predict that China’s decline as a power will occur sooner than anticipated, citing issues such as massive debt, inefficiencies reminiscent of the Soviet era, and the lurking demographic catastrophe posed by its large population.
Overall, these works provide thought-provoking insights into the potential conflicts between the US and China, challenging readers to consider the consequences of their actions and the importance of avoiding a catastrophic war.
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