Northern Ireland: What’s Next?

Among all the election results announced yesterday, the outcomes for the Northern Ireland Assembly elections could have the most far-reaching consequences. It would be erroneous to interpret Sinn Fein’s relatively strong performance as a sign of increasing support for a United Ireland. The prevailing public opinion in the Province does not indicate a swing towards a border poll, and Sinn Fein primarily focused its campaign on economic issues rather than constitutional matters. On the other hand, the Unionist vote was more divided than usual, with many voters gravitating towards the centrist Alliance party.

Nevertheless, it is highly likely that Northern Irish politics will become more unstable in the coming months. The immediate cause of this instability is the sustained anger surrounding the Northern Ireland protocol, which was agreed upon as part of the Brexit deal and treats the Province differently from the rest of the UK in terms of trade. Unionist parties strongly oppose this arrangement, viewing it as an unfair imposition that undermines their position within the Union.

The UK Government has made attempts to renegotiate the protocol with the European Union, but so far, progress has been minimal. The Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, had initially hoped for a new deal to be reached earlier this year, but that deadline came and went without any tangible results. There has been talk of introducing new legislation in Westminster that would grant ministers the power to unilaterally override certain aspects of the protocol, but it remains uncertain whether this will actually happen.

Clearly, the current situation is unsustainable. If nothing changes, it could become impossible for the parties at Stormont to form a power-sharing administration. The question now is: what actions will the Government take to address these challenges?

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