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Late on Wednesday, a group of soldiers, who called themselves the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country, took to the airwaves and declared that they had overthrown Niger’s elected government. This scene had an air of weariness and familiarity, as similar incidents have occurred in neighboring countries like Mali and Burkina Faso in the past. These countries have formed what is known as a “coup belt,” where military juntas have taken control and conflicts have erupted. Niger was supposed to be different.
In 2021, Mohamed Bazoum, a former school teacher, was elected as Niger’s president, marking the country’s first democratic transition since gaining independence from France in 1960. Bazoum succeeded Mahamadou Issoufou, who, unlike many leaders in the region, peacefully left office after serving his two constitutional terms. Western powers saw Niger as a beacon of stability in a region plagued by instability and conflicts. In exchange for financial and military support, Niger agreed to host western military bases and help curb illegal migration routes through its vast deserts. With many countries in the region turning to Russia’s Wagner Group for assistance in fighting insurgencies, Niger became an important ally to the West.
However, Niger has always been a haven in an unstable region. It shares borders with six countries, all of which are currently experiencing wars or conflicts. It is one of the poorest nations in the world and has a very young population, with a median age of 14.8. The population is also growing rapidly, with women having an average of 6.8 children each. Desertification, worsened by climate change, is destroying cultivable land at an alarming rate. Additionally, Bazoum’s political base was not as solid as his backers believed, leading to conflicts with loyalists of the previous government.
The limits of Bazoum’s authority became evident when the head of the presidential guard barricaded him inside his residence. The military then announced a coup on television, with the head of the guard proclaiming himself as the leader of the junta. This turn of events poses a dilemma for western leaders, as isolating the junta through sanctions could push them closer to Russia, as seen in Mali. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner Group, welcomed the coup and offered his mercenaries’ services to Niger’s new leaders.
The collapse of Niger’s democratically elected government raises questions and criticism towards western countries, like the US, for heavily investing in an army that turned against its own leader. It is unlikely that the coup can be reversed, and the possibility of foreign intervention, even from France, is slim.
In conclusion, Niger’s political landscape has drastically changed with the overthrow of the government. Western powers now face the challenge of dealing with the new leaders while avoiding pushing them closer to Russia. The power dynamics in the region have shifted, and the consequences of these changes remain uncertain.
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